arXiv:2605.25004v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Inferring network-wide traffic states from sparse observations with high accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty quantification is essential for intel...
arXiv:2505. 13102v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Unlike conventional "black-box" transformers with classical self-attention mechanism, we build a lightweight and interpretable transformer-like neural net by unrolling a mixed-graph-based optimization algorithm to forecast traffic with spatial and temporal dimensions.
arXiv:2606. 19138v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori.
RiskTraf introduces a risk-extrapolated residual learning approach for multi-variate traffic flow prediction, leveraging raw flow, speed, and occupancy data from the new PEMSB-3V benchmark. The method freezes a trained spatio-temporal backbone and adds a lightweight residual head that learns from historical speed and occupancy to correct flow predictions across different traffic regimes. Experiments show consistent improvements over various backbones and outperform existing debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation techniques.
SiST‑GNN introduces a simultaneous spatial‑temporal message‑passing framework for dynamic graph neural networks, fusing per‑node temporal embeddings with spatial aggregation in a single operation. By maintaining a recurrent hidden state per node and treating it as a cross‑time edge, the model jointly reasons over topology and evolution. Experiments on link‑prediction and node‑classification benchmarks show significant improvements over prior methods, achieving up to 158% gains in live‑update link prediction and outperforming discrete‑time baselines by 7–23% in dynamic node classification.
The paper introduces a gated graph attention network (GAT) to better explain spatial information flow in short‑term traffic forecasting models. By adding a gate that learns how much of a sensor’s updated state comes from its neighbors versus itself, the authors can progressively withdraw neighbor information and observe its impact on accuracy. Applied to the ST‑MetaNet architecture on data from 498 loop detectors in England, the gated GAT shows that neighbor influence is higher for busy sensors, improves accuracy slightly with mild regularisation, and reveals that the two GAT layers are largely redundant.
STHMoE is a Spatio‑Temporal Hypergraph‑Enhanced Mixture of Experts framework designed for urban traffic forecasting. It separates traffic dynamics into frequency‑, time‑, spatial‑, and higher‑order representations, each handled by a prompt‑guided expert built on a partially frozen large language model. The higher‑order expert uses an adaptive hypergraph module to learn evolving spatial structures, while an entropy‑aware router balances expert usage and fuses outputs, achieving competitive results on ten real‑world traffic benchmarks.
FedeRICo is a federated traffic forecasting framework that addresses heterogeneity across client sensor subgraphs by combining gradient-level collaboration with boundary-aware residual communication. It uses a dual-branch architecture: a globally guided branch for transferable forecasting structure and a private residual branch that preserves client-specific corrections and incorporates boundary residual signals. Experiments on four real-world traffic benchmarks show that FedeRICo outperforms state‑of‑the‑art federated spatial‑temporal baselines while keeping training runtime competitive.
The paper introduces a spatio‑temporal traffic forecasting framework that fuses Graph Neural Networks with semantic knowledge from general-purpose knowledge graphs such as Wikidata. By generating embeddings that capture relationships like nearby points of interest, administrative hierarchies, and functional roles of locations, the framework creates additional adjacency matrices that enrich the sensor graph beyond physical connectivity. Experiments with established forecasting methods demonstrate that this external knowledge improves prediction accuracy and offers a path toward better interpretability.
arXiv:2607. 24056v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Network-wide traffic volume estimation typically relies on propagating measurements from fixed sensors, making performance highly dependent on sensor density and limiting deployment in sparsely instrumented networks.
arXiv:2606. 05070v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols.
arXiv:2606. 09539v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have become the dominant approach for traffic prediction, yet their computational requirements pose challenges for practical deployment in intelligent transportation systems (ITS).