RiskTraf introduces a risk-extrapolated residual learning approach for multi-variate traffic flow prediction, leveraging raw flow, speed, and occupancy data from the new PEMSB-3V benchmark. The method freezes a trained spatio-temporal backbone and adds a lightweight residual head that learns from historical speed and occupancy to correct flow predictions across different traffic regimes. Experiments show consistent improvements over various backbones and outperform existing debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation techniques.
arXiv:2606. 18367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes.
arXiv:2606. 00857v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for safe autonomous driving.
AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.
The paper introduces the Markov Chain Car‑Following (MC‑CF) model, an empirical probabilistic approach that represents car‑following as a Markov process and samples accelerations from empirical distributions within discretized state bins. Evaluation on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset shows that MC‑CF variants outperform physics‑based baselines and compete with modern data‑driven methods in both one‑step and open‑loop trajectory prediction. Zero‑shot transfer to the Naturalistic Phoenix dataset and microscopic ring‑road simulations demonstrate cross‑domain generalization and scalability, with the model reducing collisions and reproducing naturalistic shockwave propagation.
arXiv:2609.16528v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matchi...
arXiv:2510. 03381v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Interchanges are crucial nodes for vehicle transfers between highways, yet the lack of real-time ramp detectors creates blind spots in traffic prediction.
arXiv:2604. 16084v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Traffic forecasting is a challenging spatio-temporal modeling task and a critical component of urban transportation management.
arXiv:2606. 06423v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Safety-critical traffic scenario generation is essential for evaluating autonomous driving systems under rare but high-risk interactions.
arXiv:2608. 01180v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Traffic congestion prediction is essential for congestion mitigation, but the COVID-19 pandemic and related control measures altered travel behavior and increased prediction complexity.
arXiv:2608. 05265v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas.
arXiv:2608. 15504v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Encrypted traffic classification is vital for network security, yet real-world deployments are inherently sensitive to rare but high-loss errors such as misclassification of malicious traffic.
ResLearn-XR is a residual learning framework designed to predict extended reality (XR) network traffic and estimate Quality-of-Experience (QoE) risk. It uses a two‑stage temporal learning structure: a base sequence prediction model followed by task‑specific residual components that operate in value space for traffic forecasting and in logit space for probabilistic QoE risk estimation. The framework introduces a Data Descriptor Algorithm (DDA) to convert packet‑level observables into frame‑timing‑aware descriptors and is evaluated on a newly constructed XR Traffic‑QoE dataset, achieving significant reductions in SMAPE for both traffic prediction and QoE‑risk estimation compared to single‑stage baselines.