RiskTraf introduces a risk-extrapolated residual learning approach for multi-variate traffic flow prediction, leveraging raw flow, speed, and occupancy data from the new PEMSB-3V benchmark. The method freezes a trained spatio-temporal backbone and adds a lightweight residual head that learns from historical speed and occupancy to correct flow predictions across different traffic regimes. Experiments show consistent improvements over various backbones and outperform existing debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation techniques.
arXiv:2606. 18367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes.
arXiv:2606. 00857v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for safe autonomous driving.
The paper introduces GAS-PFN, a Graph‑Aware Spatiotemporal Prior‑Data Fitted Network that incorporates road topology into synthetic task priors via random‑walk diffusion and uses a two‑mask Transformer architecture to separately model sensor‑specific temporal dynamics and spatiotemporal interactions. This design allows the model to adapt to new traffic networks without parameter updates, achieving a 34.0% average MSE reduction over TimePFN and a 27.7% reduction over recent industry zero‑shot forecasters across six benchmarks at a 90‑minute horizon.
AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.
The paper introduces the Markov Chain Car‑Following (MC‑CF) model, an empirical probabilistic approach that represents car‑following as a Markov process and samples accelerations from empirical distributions within discretized state bins. Evaluation on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset shows that MC‑CF variants outperform physics‑based baselines and compete with modern data‑driven methods in both one‑step and open‑loop trajectory prediction. Zero‑shot transfer to the Naturalistic Phoenix dataset and microscopic ring‑road simulations demonstrate cross‑domain generalization and scalability, with the model reducing collisions and reproducing naturalistic shockwave propagation.
RiskWorld is a risk‑aware world modeling framework that forecasts shared occupancy and selectively replaces planned trajectories in automated driving. It fuses spatial risk fields, temporal actor context, and visual bird’s‑eye‑view features, using flow‑guided evolution to transport occupancy and signed residuals to correct it. In open‑loop planning on nuScenes, RiskWorld achieves the lowest collision rate over a 3‑second horizon and the second‑best average L2 error, running at 11.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090.
arXiv:2609.21486v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multimodal trajectory prediction improves behavioral coverage in end-to-end autonomous driving, but existing methods remain limited by sparse scene rep...
arXiv:2609.16528v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matchi...
arXiv:2510. 03381v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Interchanges are crucial nodes for vehicle transfers between highways, yet the lack of real-time ramp detectors creates blind spots in traffic prediction.
arXiv:2604. 16084v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Traffic forecasting is a challenging spatio-temporal modeling task and a critical component of urban transportation management.
arXiv:2606. 06423v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Safety-critical traffic scenario generation is essential for evaluating autonomous driving systems under rare but high-risk interactions.
arXiv:2602.14049v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a core component of intelligent transportation systems, supporting various downstream tasks such as si...