arXiv:2606. 18367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes.
By Yingshuo Wang, Xian Sun, Lingdong Kong, Wei Gao, Yanhang Li, Zhichao Fan, Zexin Zhuang
arXiv:2606. 00857v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for safe autonomous driving.
By Xinyi Ning, Zilin Bian, Dachuan Zuo, Semiha Ergan, Kaan Ozbay
The paper introduces GAS-PFN, a Graph‑Aware Spatiotemporal Prior‑Data Fitted Network that incorporates road topology into synthetic task priors via random‑walk diffusion and uses a two‑mask Transformer architecture to separately model sensor‑specific temporal dynamics and spatiotemporal interactions. This design allows the model to adapt to new traffic networks without parameter updates, achieving a 34.0% average MSE reduction over TimePFN and a 27.7% reduction over recent industry zero‑shot forecasters across six benchmarks at a 90‑minute horizon.
By Joseph Natter, Long Vu, Yifan Zhang, Bobin Deng, Kun Suo, Rui Wu
AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.
By Zhixiang Wu, Yining Liu, Bo Zhao, Szu-Yu Chen, Huiran Duan, Chu Lin, Chuanguang Yang
The paper introduces the Markov Chain Car‑Following (MC‑CF) model, an empirical probabilistic approach that represents car‑following as a Markov process and samples accelerations from empirical distributions within discretized state bins. Evaluation on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset shows that MC‑CF variants outperform physics‑based baselines and compete with modern data‑driven methods in both one‑step and open‑loop trajectory prediction. Zero‑shot transfer to the Naturalistic Phoenix dataset and microscopic ring‑road simulations demonstrate cross‑domain generalization and scalability, with the model reducing collisions and reproducing naturalistic shockwave propagation.
By Sungyong Chung, Yanlin Zhang, Nachuan Li, Dana Monzer, Alireza Talebpour
RiskWorld is a risk‑aware world modeling framework that forecasts shared occupancy and selectively replaces planned trajectories in automated driving. It fuses spatial risk fields, temporal actor context, and visual bird’s‑eye‑view features, using flow‑guided evolution to transport occupancy and signed residuals to correct it. In open‑loop planning on nuScenes, RiskWorld achieves the lowest collision rate over a 3‑second horizon and the second‑best average L2 error, running at 11.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090.
By Rongxiang Zeng, Linsen Cai, Jiafu Zhang, Yijie Zhong, Yide Tao, Shuai Wang, Nan Zheng, Hai L. Vu, Alvaro Garcia Hernandez, Yongqi Dong