arXiv Machine Learning

Estimating Inconsistency Response Surfaces under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical System Development

The paper presents a method to estimate inconsistency response surfaces in Cyber‑Physical Systems (CPS) under uncertainty. By reformulating inconsistency as an intervention‑response modeling problem, the authors use Saltelli sampling and multi‑fidelity Monte Carlo estimation to generate datasets, then train a surrogate model that predicts inconsistency from propagated uncertainty geometry. Experiments on 48 scenarios across 10 CPS domains show that the surrogate matches Monte Carlo estimates while dramatically reducing evaluation time, enabling extensive sensitivity analysis and a gradient‑based consistency recourse method to identify minimal interventions that restore consistency.

arXiv AI
Sep 18

Diagnose, Recover, Certify: Task Readiness under Hidden Dynamics Changes

The paper introduces a framework for diagnosing and recovering from hidden dynamics changes in deployed control policies, focusing on the problem of task readiness under dormant dynamics drift. It proposes an intervention-based Bayesian method called Evidence‑Gated Matched‑Pulse Transport that localizes faults and estimates actuator effectiveness, enabling agents to certify readiness for future tasks with limited, task‑agnostic interactions. The approach is evaluated on diverse benchmarks, measuring readiness coverage, selective risk, interaction cost, and return, and identifies regimes where transported evidence is decisive.

By Nguyen Viet Tuan Kiet, Huynh Thi Thanh Binh
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of In-Context Learning for Robust Measure of LLM Prediction Confidence

arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.

By Jinseok Chung, Minkyoung Song, Hyunji Jung, Namhoon Lee
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 22

Uncertainty Quantification for AI-Driven Crash Simulation Surrogates: A Comparative Study of Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensemble on Open-Source Bumper Beam Benchmark

arXiv:2607. 18294v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning surrogate models are increasingly being explored in engineering product development to augment simulation-driven design, offering near-instantaneous predictions that complement computationally expensive high-fidelity analyses.

By Sudeep Chavare
arXiv AI
Jul 8

From Graphs to Gradients: Physics-Inspired Structural Attribution for Cyber-Physical IoT Systems and Beyond

arXiv:2607. 05563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interpretable explanation methods in Artificial Intelligence aim to uncover the underlying causes and their effects, enabling a deeper understanding of why a system behaves in a certain way under different inputs.

By Spyridon Evangelatos, Christos Diou, Georgios Th. Papadopoulos, Evangelos Markakis, Panagiotis Sarigiannidis
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 21

Complex Problem Solving in Large Language Models: A Statistical Control Survey and Diagnostic Framework

arXiv:2609.20973v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Complex problem solving (CPS) with large language models (LLMs) is often framed as a matter of stronger reasoning or longer generation. Yet early-ste...

By Jiazhang Cai, Tao Wang, Ruidong Zhang, Siyuan Li, Terry Ma, Luyang Fang, Haoran Lu, Huimin Cheng, Yingchuan Zhang, Shushan Wu, Rui Xie, Lin Tang, Chao Huang, Rongjie Liu, Ziyu Liu, Meizhi Yu, Yongkai Chen, Yifan Zhou, Zeliang Sun, Chang Liu, Zhen Xiang, Wei Xiao, Zixin Rao, Xinyi Liu, Yutong Hu, Mengrui Zhang, Jing Zhang, Weidi Luo, Jincheng Yu, Zhengliang Liu, Weihang You, Hanqi Jiang, Yi Pan, Junhao Chen, Xinliang Li, Tianming Liu, Wenxuan Zhong, Ping Ma
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces

arXiv:2608. 09166v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable uncertainty representation is essential for deploying autonomous systems that interact with their environment, as robots must reason about how uncertainty arising from both stochasticity and model mismatch is impacted by contacts with obstacles (e.

By Lu\'is Marques, Kristian Popov, Dmitry Berenson
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

Predictive Uncertainty for Neural CAE Surrogates

arXiv:2609.25430v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural surrogates can substantially accelerate computer-aided engineering (CAE) workflows, but their use in design requires uncertainty estimates that...

By Kaustubh Tangsali, Mohammad Amin Nabian, Kelvin Lee, Carmelo Gonzales, Sanjay Choudhry
arXiv AI
Sep 12

Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration

The paper introduces Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades (CAUC), a post‑hoc framework that calibrates each model’s confidence independently and uses these calibrated scores to decide when to accept an early prediction, invoke a stronger model, or combine outputs. CAUC establishes a common reliability scale across heterogeneous models, decoupling deployment policies from specific model pools or budgets. Experiments on six language benchmarks show a 1.9% relative accuracy gain over strong‑model‑only inference while cutting strong‑model calls by about 47%, and on image classification it maintains or improves performance while reducing GFLOPs by up to 57%.

By Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu, Ying Liu, Wei Zhao