The paper compares two main strategies for producing probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models (e.g., diffusion or flow matching) and ensembles of deterministic models trained with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). It introduces a framework that evaluates both methods on diverse 2‑D spatiotemporal systems, measuring empirical coverage of predictive intervals, accuracy, and computational efficiency. The study finds that CRPS‑trained ensembles generally provide more reliable uncertainties and faster inference, while generative models trained in ambient space can match coverage but at higher latency. The authors also release AutoCast, a modular framework for both approaches, and AutoSim, a dataset generation tool.
arXiv:2607. 00196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion framework designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion‑based generative pipeline for uncertainty quantification, operates in a compact latent space learned by VAEs for efficient large‑ensemble generation, and employs transfer learning with LoRA to overcome limited training data. On reanalysis data, it outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art operational systems such as ECMWF‑S2S.
arXiv:2609.13345v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting is central to decision-making under uncertainty, yet its methodological landscape has become increasingly fragmented across...
arXiv:2608. 06107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models.
arXiv:2609.08412v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine-learning weather models (MLWMs) now match or outperform operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) at global medium-range forecasting, at f...
arXiv:2604. 09041v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: AI-based weather forecasting now rivals traditional physics-based ensembles, but state-of-the-art (SOTA) models rely on specialized architectures and massive computational budgets, creating a high barrier to entry.
The paper presents a probabilistic post‑processing framework that uses a conditional Variational Autoencoder (cVAE) with a non‑parametric decoder to adjust seasonal Arctic sea‑ice forecasts. By replacing the Gaussian decoder with a generator and optimizing with Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), the method produces larger, bias‑corrected ensembles that are better calibrated, more consistent with observations, and exhibit higher resolution and sharper spectral power than standard cVAEs. The approach demonstrates improved forecast skill and reduced errors compared to benchmark predictions.
arXiv:2605. 05540v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories.
The paper introduces DV-Flow, a flow‑matching framework that treats deterministic prediction as a parallel velocity component instead of embedding it within the generative process. This design stabilizes end‑to‑end training and unifies several existing methods as special cases, enabling direct comparison. Experiments on six real‑world datasets show that DV‑Flow consistently outperforms strong baselines in probabilistic time‑series forecasting.
Variational Streaming Flow (VSF) extends the efficient Streaming Flow (SF) framework by learning a latent distribution conditioned on system dynamics, enabling probabilistic forecasting in physical time. Unlike SF’s deterministic velocity field, VSF produces multiple plausible future trajectories, improving predictive accuracy and distributional fidelity across deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems. The method supports long‑horizon rollouts over 1,000 steps, handles bifurcating dynamics, and can be integrated as a plug‑and‑play predictor into Joint‑Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) world models to enhance navigation, motion planning, and manipulation tasks.
arXiv:2512.22814v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate long-range weather forecasting remains a major challenge for AI models, both because errors accumulate over autoregressive rollouts and be...