The paper introduces a missingness‑aware conformal calibration method for mortality prediction that accounts for cross‑hospital distribution shifts. By selecting a measurement on an independent sample, grouping patients by whether that measurement is recorded, and applying Mondrian calibration within each group, the method avoids reusing calibration outcomes. Experiments on eICU and MIMIC‑IV data show that, compared to pooled calibration, it reduces the worst‑group coverage gap by a median of 1.9 percentage points across six settings, though the benefit varies with predictor and hospital.
arXiv:2606. 20115v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free segmentation guarantees by calibrating a prediction-set threshold on held-out data.
arXiv:2606. 20115v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free guarantees on segmentation quality by calibrating a prediction-set threshold on held-out data.
arXiv:2605. 24212v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain.
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2607. 28696v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical vision-language models (VLMs) can retain high observed marginal coverage after clinical shift while substantially under-covering an individual disease class.
arXiv:2607. 26752v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical world models aim to learn a latent state of patient or organ physiology and a transition function that forecasts how that state evolves under interventions, supporting downstream tasks from imaging-based diagnosis to digital-twin treatment planning.
arXiv:2608. 07795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Prediction intervals for multi-modal regression with tabular variables, text, images, or other input sources are difficult to calibrate when those sources disagree or one is missing.
arXiv:2609.14902v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Shapley value (SV)-based methods are the prevailing framework for feature attribution in machine learning, yet existing population-level Shapley esti...
arXiv:2608. 04025v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Whole-slide survival models commonly provide risk rankings without calibrated statements about individual event times.
The paper introduces CALIBRA, a calibration-first multimodal temporal learning framework designed for transferable asthma‑risk forecasting across varying patient cohorts and sensor ecosystems. It processes multiple data streams—environmental, pulmonary, symptom, medication, wearable, and context—using dedicated recurrent encoders, a reliability‑conditioned gate, and gradient‑reversal training to mitigate cohort bias. CALIBRA employs a shrinkage‑based hierarchical logistic layer for probability calibration and split conformal prediction for abstention‑capable prediction sets, achieving competitive performance on a semi‑synthetic three‑cohort benchmark with controlled distribution shift.
The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.