The paper investigates when conformal calibration for cause‑of‑failure prediction sets under competing risks requires censoring weights. It shows that using only complete‑case calibration can lead to coverage that is either above or below the nominal level, especially when a substantial proportion of subjects are event‑free at the prediction horizon. The authors demonstrate through simulations that incorporating weights from a correctly specified censoring model restores nominal coverage, and they provide a finite‑sample lower bound that penalises censoring‑model error, highlighting the risk of under‑coverage when the model is misspecified.
arXiv:2608.21262v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many machine-learning systems set a threshold at a quantile of a calibration set: conformal predictors that promise 90% coverage by drawing their cut...
arXiv:2212. 05260v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Proper scoring rules encourage probabilistic predictions that match the true underlying distribution and are central to model evaluation, with increasing relevance in automated workflows such as AutoML.
arXiv:2608. 16864v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In survival analysis the way covariates act on the risk of an event often differs between early and late failure times, yet hazard- and mean-based summaries collapse this variation into a single number.
The paper introduces a missingness‑aware conformal calibration method for mortality prediction that accounts for cross‑hospital distribution shifts. By selecting a measurement on an independent sample, grouping patients by whether that measurement is recorded, and applying Mondrian calibration within each group, the method avoids reusing calibration outcomes. Experiments on eICU and MIMIC‑IV data show that, compared to pooled calibration, it reduces the worst‑group coverage gap by a median of 1.9 percentage points across six settings, though the benefit varies with predictor and hospital.
arXiv:2607. 28696v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical vision-language models (VLMs) can retain high observed marginal coverage after clinical shift while substantially under-covering an individual disease class.
arXiv:2608. 04025v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Whole-slide survival models commonly provide risk rankings without calibrated statements about individual event times.
arXiv:2606. 06393v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts.
arXiv:2610.09541v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Signals that predict whether a chain-of-thought (CoT) trace is correct are compared by AUC, but deploying one requires a threshold with a guarantee....
arXiv:2608. 19376v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Split-conformal prediction provides marginal coverage under exchangeability and is increasingly used as an abstention layer for zero-shot vision-language models (VLMs).
arXiv:2609.11592v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Transportation agencies increasingly predict crash-injury severity with statistical and machine-learning models, but these models do not state how...
arXiv:2606. 29054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) deployed for structured generation (NER, JSON extraction, QA, and classification) lack formal reliability guarantees, and standard heuristic abstention policies miss user-specified risk targets by 7.
arXiv:2606. 20115v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free segmentation guarantees by calibrating a prediction-set threshold on held-out data.