arXiv Machine Learning By Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk, Archer Y. Yang

Isotonic Conformal Prediction

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2606. 31600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees.

By Sayan Das, Bahram Yaghooti, Todd A. Kuffner, Soumendra N. Lahiri
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3

Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values

arXiv:2606. 03600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits.

By Nabil Alami, Jad Zakharia, Souhaib Ben Taieb
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

Conformalized Regression for Continuous Bounded Outcomes

arXiv:2507. 14023v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions.

By Zhanli Wu, Fabrizio Leisen, F. Javier Rubio