The paper introduces a bounded updating framework for ICU prediction models that freezes the physiological encoder while allowing updates only to the treatment pathway and fusion head. Experiments on 84,792 MIMIC-IV ICU stays across four temporal shifts show that selective adaptation yields more stable explanations—higher rank correlation, better top‑5 feature agreement, and improved retrieval stability—compared to full model adaptation. Predictive performance varies by outcome, but the results demonstrate that explanation stability is governed by the structural boundaries of allowed adaptation rather than merely by freezing components.
By Fatema Ferdous Tamanna, K. M. Merajul Arefin, Md. Abdul Masud
arXiv:2605. 10840v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present Clin-JEPA, a multi-phase co-training framework for joint-embedding predictive (JEPA) pretraining on EHR patient trajectories.
By Yixuan Yang, Mehak Arora, Ryan Zhang, Baraa Abed, Junseob Kim, Tilendra Choudhary, Md Hassanuzzaman, Kevin Zhu, Ayman Ali, Chengkun Yang, Alasdair Edward Gent, Victor Moas, Rishikesan Kamaleswaran
arXiv:2604. 27967v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: We introduce StructGP, a continuous-time multi-task Gaussian process that couples process convolutions with differentiable structure learning to uncover a sparse, ordered directed acyclic graph (DAG) of inter-variable dependencies while preserving principled uncertainty.
By Ivan Lerner, Jean Feydy, Alexandre Kalimouttou, Anita Burgun, Francis Bach
arXiv:2605. 24212v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain.
By Siqi Li, Chuan Hong, Ziye Tian, Benjamin Sieu-Hon Leong, Koshi Nakagawa, Hideharu Tanaka, Sang Do Shin, Khuong Quoc Dai, Do Ngoc Son, Marcus Eng Hock Ong, Nan Liu, Molei Liu
Mr.Dec is a new Transformer‑decoder model that predicts 30‑day hospital readmission by treating each admission as a chronological sequence of daily multimodal events, integrating Electronic Health Record updates and Chest X‑ray findings. It uses disease‑specific supervised contrastive learning to shape a diagnosis‑aware latent space and preserves day‑level clinical signals that other methods often compress. Experiments on MIMIC‑IV and MIMIC‑CXR datasets show state‑of‑the‑art performance and the model can highlight "Critical Days" for actionable real‑time risk stratification.
By Minjun Kim, Jong Hak Moon
arXiv:2608. 13518v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many clinical prediction models treat post-intervention outcomes as a one-step mapping from baseline measurements to a future endpoint.
By Yunsung Chung, Yingshuo Liu, Abboud F. Hassan, Han Feng, Mary M. Maleckar, Nassir Marrouche, Jihun Hamm
The paper introduces a formal framework and benchmark for time‑series world models (TSWMs) that separates state, actions, and exogenous inputs, and defines a new metric called mechanism consistency to evaluate whether model predictions move in the expected direction when actions change. Experiments on eight public datasets show that using a frozen latent prediction space and gated output fusion improves prediction accuracy, while prediction error and mechanism consistency often diverge, with the best‑performing models sometimes failing to exhibit consistent directional responses. Adding a directional supervision loss significantly boosts mechanism consistency without affecting mean‑absolute error, providing a practical recipe for building more reliable TSWMs.
By Haochen Zhang, Jiaheng Guo, Zhen Xu, Zachary Plotkin, Nicholas Konz, Zhen Tan, Tianlong Chen
arXiv:2607. 19020v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Background: Clinical decision support systems degrade silently as treatment protocols evolve, yet standard adaptation methods treat models as monolithic blocks, unable to distinguish stable patient physiology from shifting institutional practice.
By Fatema Ferdous Tamanna, K. M. Merajul Arefin, Md. Abdul Masud
arXiv:2607. 20453v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models show promise for clinical prediction, but zero-shot performance on specialized tasks is limited by incomplete domain knowledge, especially for smaller locally deployable models.
By Jessica Sena, Shesadree Priyadarshani, Miguel Contreras, Bharat Gandhi, Scott Siegel, Subhash Nerella, Parisa Rashidi
The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.
By Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Nusrat Jahan, Snehasis Mukhopadhyay, Shiaofen Fang, Vijay R. Ramakrishnan
The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.
By Yunlong Wang
arXiv:2608. 08288v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from longitudinal observational data is central to clinical decision support.
By Abisoye Abidakun, Mingjun Zhong, Georgios Leontidis