The paper introduces a physics‑refined framework for spatiotemporal forecasting on open‑boundary hydrologic graphs, addressing instability caused by missing external boundary forcing. It learns ghost node proxies to approximate unobserved inputs and applies two physics refiners: one enforcing local consistency with two‑hop neighbors, and another using a physics‑guided graph neural operator to reduce long‑horizon drift. Experiments on two real‑world hydrologic graphs show improved prediction accuracy and stability compared to existing learning‑based and physics‑informed models.
arXiv:2606. 11162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes.
arXiv:2608. 08689v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The state evolution of a complex system arises jointly from object laws, relational propagation, domain conservation, and unmodeled error.
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
TWIG (Time‑Causal Wavelet Operator for Irregular Graphs) is a graph‑native neural operator designed for autoregressive surrogate modeling on static irregular graphs. It transforms each node’s history into causal multiscale temporal features, separating recent changes from slower memory components, and propagates these through graph‑wavelet operator blocks with gated pointwise channel mixing. The architecture is causal by construction, enabling closed‑loop forecasting where predictions are recursively reused as future inputs, and it consistently outperforms non‑time‑causal baselines across three irregular‑domain forecasting problems.
arXiv:2606. 19138v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori.
arXiv:2608. 01775v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Compound flooding in managed coastal systems is influenced by hydrological conditions and water-management activity observed across multiple monitoring stations.
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
The paper introduces a Physics Informed Recurrent Neural Network (PIRNN) that simultaneously predicts target time series and unobservable intermediate physical variables, enhancing robustness and interpretability. It adapts to any physical model with multiple equations and variables, demonstrated on groundwater level predictions using the Gardenia model. Experiments on twelve real‑world datasets show PIRNN outperforming several neural network baselines and the Gardenia model, with an ablation study confirming the value of physical knowledge.
arXiv:2609.37565v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning surrogates can produce high-resolution coastal flood maps orders of magnitude faster than physics-based hydrodynamic simulators, yet tran...
arXiv:2512. 03606v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable.
arXiv:2602.22293v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate river prediction is essential for water, food and energy security, yet remains challenging across entire river networks. Machine learning...
arXiv:2608. 02662v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable forecasting of nonlinear physical systems underpins scientific discovery and engineering decision-making.