arXiv:2608. 01775v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Compound flooding in managed coastal systems is influenced by hydrological conditions and water-management activity observed across multiple monitoring stations.
arXiv:2506. 04281v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Compound flooding, driven by nonlinear interactions between multiple hydrometeorological factors, poses a significant challenge to hazard prevention.
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
The paper introduces a physics‑refined framework for spatiotemporal forecasting on open‑boundary hydrologic graphs, addressing instability caused by missing external boundary forcing. It learns ghost node proxies to approximate unobserved inputs and applies two physics refiners: one enforcing local consistency with two‑hop neighbors, and another using a physics‑guided graph neural operator to reduce long‑horizon drift. Experiments on two real‑world hydrologic graphs show improved prediction accuracy and stability compared to existing learning‑based and physics‑informed models.
arXiv:2609.22702v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate flood forecasts several days in advance are essential for flood control, water-resource management, and emergency response. Producing them at...
arXiv:2606. 00506v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Energy consumption prediction is essential for efficient grid management, demand-side optimization, and sustainable energy planning.
arXiv:2606. 31804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems.
PCSDiff is a diffusion-based framework designed to correct systematic biases and enhance spatial resolution in medium-term (10‑day) precipitation forecasts. It uses a Precipitation Intensity‑aware Multi‑branch Decoder to mitigate dynamic multi‑day errors and a two‑phase conditional diffusion super‑resolution module to restore fine‑scale rainfall patterns. Evaluated over China, PCSDiff reduces RMSE by 16.1% and increases ACC by 13.9% compared to raw ECMWF forecasts, outperforming mainstream deep‑learning baselines and enabling low‑latency rolling forecasts for operational use.
The paper introduces Pangu‑Bayes, a probabilistic forecasting hierarchy that separates atmospheric‑state uncertainty from learned‑model uncertainty as distinct stochastic variables, allowing cross‑flow perturbations of the evolving state with Bayesian parameter samples. In tests on 90 held‑out 2023 tropical cyclones, Pangu‑Bayes reduces track, pressure, and wind errors by 54.2%, 17.2%, and 24.9% respectively, and improves rapid‑intensification detection. The study finds that atmospheric‑state variability more consistently improves track prediction, while learned‑model variability more often enhances intensity prediction, demonstrating how model‑defined uncertainty resolution can be linked to target‑dependent value and dynamical interpretation.
arXiv:2607. 04862v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate extreme precipitation forecasting is critical for disaster mitigation but remains challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to systemic intensity underestimation and spatial displacement.
The study presents a deployment‑aware framework for forecasting spring discharge and groundwater levels in the Edwards Aquifer over 1‑12 week horizons using 79 years of hydroclimatic data. Five machine‑learning families—extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, LSTM, CNN, and Transformers—were compared, with extreme gradient boosting consistently delivering the highest reliability (R² ≥ 0.94) and strong agreement with operational drought thresholds. The validated models were integrated into a five‑agent operational architecture that automates data acquisition, model selection, prediction, threshold monitoring, verification, literature retrieval, and reporting.
arXiv:2504. 20238v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability research has long held that rapid error growth at small spatial scales imposes an intrinsic limit of roughly two weeks on deterministic weather forecast skill.