arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
By Tewodros Syum Gebre, Jagrati Talreja, Leila Hashemi-Beni
KNOU‑Flood extends the open AIFL recipe for global streamflow forecasting by retaining a single‑layer LSTM and two‑stage transfer learning while adding a longer 424‑day input window, lead‑aware forecast inputs, and GraphCast as an additional forecast source. The model also introduces a latent‑noise ensemble trained with the fair CRPS, achieving a median KGE′ of 0.65 at lead time 1 and 0.48 at lead time 10 across 2,099 test basins, outperforming AIFL and a 1,024‑unit baseline. The probabilistic head, GraphCast channels, longer window, and mixed fine‑tuning collectively reduce lead‑time decay, improve calibration, and enhance detection of multi‑year floods.
By Minjong Cheon
The study presents a deployment‑aware framework for forecasting spring discharge and groundwater levels in the Edwards Aquifer over 1‑12 week horizons using 79 years of hydroclimatic data. Five machine‑learning families—extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, LSTM, CNN, and Transformers—were compared, with extreme gradient boosting consistently delivering the highest reliability (R² ≥ 0.94) and strong agreement with operational drought thresholds. The validated models were integrated into a five‑agent operational architecture that automates data acquisition, model selection, prediction, threshold monitoring, verification, literature retrieval, and reporting.
By Pramod Lekhak, Chetan Sharma, Hakan Ba\c{s}a\u{g}ao\u{g}lu, F. Paul Bertetti, Debaditya Chakraborty
The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
By Julian F. Schmitt, Bertrand Delorme, Robert C. King, Yashica Patodia, Tapio Schneider, Aditi Sheshadri, Ravi Jain
arXiv:2605.16929v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts....
By Graham Clyne, Julia Kaltenborn, Peer Nowack, Claire Monteleoni, Anastase Charantonis