arXiv AI By Yiming Sun, Yuan Zhang, Qi Cheng, Yingda Fan, Runlong Yu, Yiqun Xie, Xiaowei Jia

EvoBench: An Evolving, Diagnostic Benchmark Framework for Environmental Modeling

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EvoBench is a diagnostic benchmark framework designed to reveal where and when machine‑learning models for environmental variables fail, rather than relying on a single average accuracy score. It tracks model performance over time and across spatial extrapolation, highlighting issues such as non‑stationarity, poor performance at unmonitored sites, and under‑prediction of rare events like floods. In a case study on daily streamflow prediction across 9,000 U.S. basins, EvoBench shows that no model dominates all scenarios and that targeted fixes can mitigate identified weaknesses.

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arXiv AI
Jul 28

AIFL: A Global Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model Using a Deterministic LSTM Pre-trained on ERA5-Land and Fine-tuned on IFS

arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.

By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 16

KNOU-Flood: Advancing global streamflow forecasting with lead-aware probabilistic machine learning

KNOU‑Flood extends the open AIFL recipe for global streamflow forecasting by retaining a single‑layer LSTM and two‑stage transfer learning while adding a longer 424‑day input window, lead‑aware forecast inputs, and GraphCast as an additional forecast source. The model also introduces a latent‑noise ensemble trained with the fair CRPS, achieving a median KGE′ of 0.65 at lead time 1 and 0.48 at lead time 10 across 2,099 test basins, outperforming AIFL and a 1,024‑unit baseline. The probabilistic head, GraphCast channels, longer window, and mixed fine‑tuning collectively reduce lead‑time decay, improve calibration, and enhance detection of multi‑year floods.

By Minjong Cheon
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Predictors and Orchestrators: Parsimonious Machine Learning within an Agentic AI Harness for Multi-Horizon Karst Aquifer Forecasting

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By Pramod Lekhak, Chetan Sharma, Hakan Ba\c{s}a\u{g}ao\u{g}lu, F. Paul Bertetti, Debaditya Chakraborty
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Improving global precipitation forecasts with an AI weather model trained on satellite observations

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By Julian F. Schmitt, Bertrand Delorme, Robert C. King, Yashica Patodia, Tapio Schneider, Aditi Sheshadri, Ravi Jain