EvoBench is a diagnostic benchmark framework designed to reveal where and when machine‑learning models for environmental variables fail, rather than relying on a single average accuracy score. It tracks model performance over time and across spatial extrapolation, highlighting issues such as non‑stationarity, poor performance at unmonitored sites, and under‑prediction of rare events like floods. In a case study on daily streamflow prediction across 9,000 U.S. basins, EvoBench shows that no model dominates all scenarios and that targeted fixes can mitigate identified weaknesses.
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
KNOU‑Flood extends the open AIFL recipe for global streamflow forecasting by retaining a single‑layer LSTM and two‑stage transfer learning while adding a longer 424‑day input window, lead‑aware forecast inputs, and GraphCast as an additional forecast source. The model also introduces a latent‑noise ensemble trained with the fair CRPS, achieving a median KGE′ of 0.65 at lead time 1 and 0.48 at lead time 10 across 2,099 test basins, outperforming AIFL and a 1,024‑unit baseline. The probabilistic head, GraphCast channels, longer window, and mixed fine‑tuning collectively reduce lead‑time decay, improve calibration, and enhance detection of multi‑year floods.
The study presents a deployment‑aware framework for forecasting spring discharge and groundwater levels in the Edwards Aquifer over 1‑12 week horizons using 79 years of hydroclimatic data. Five machine‑learning families—extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, LSTM, CNN, and Transformers—were compared, with extreme gradient boosting consistently delivering the highest reliability (R² ≥ 0.94) and strong agreement with operational drought thresholds. The validated models were integrated into a five‑agent operational architecture that automates data acquisition, model selection, prediction, threshold monitoring, verification, literature retrieval, and reporting.
The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
arXiv:2605.16929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts....
arXiv:2608.24665v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Power outage prediction models are increasingly used in assessments of climate-driven infrastructure risk, yet current evaluation practices obscure whe...
arXiv:2610.09770v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models acro...
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
arXiv:2607. 23983v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer.
arXiv:2506. 04281v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Compound flooding, driven by nonlinear interactions between multiple hydrometeorological factors, poses a significant challenge to hazard prevention.
arXiv:2604. 26634v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021-2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data.