arXiv Machine Learning

WaVeFuse: Regime-Adaptive Equity Index Forecasting via Channel-Wise Wavelet Denoising and Vertical Attention Fusion

arXiv Machine Learning
3d ago

VertiFuseX: Generalizable Financial Forecasting via Multi-Stream Temporal Fusion

VertiFuseX is a hybrid LSTM architecture that fuses multi‑scale temporal representations at the penultimate layer, stacking features from LSTM, Bi‑LSTM, and St‑LSTM branches and a parallel DNN stream. On 15 years of global equity index data, it reduces MAPE by 30‑54% and improves MAE and RMSE by over 40% compared to LSTM baselines, outperforming seven state‑of‑the‑art models across 33 metric‑dataset comparisons. The model is lightweight (675k parameters, 2.6 MB footprint) with 1.5 ms/sample inference latency and demonstrates robust, interpretable forecasting with reduced drawdowns in algorithmic trading simulations.

By Aashish Bohra, Vivek Vijay
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 7

WaveletDiff: Multilevel Wavelet Diffusion For Time Series Generation

WaveletDiff is a diffusion-based framework that generates time series by training directly on wavelet coefficients, leveraging multi-resolution structure through level‑specific transformers and cross‑level attention with adaptive gating. The model incorporates Parseval‑theorem‑based energy constraints to preserve time‑frequency properties during diffusion. Experiments on six real‑world datasets from energy, finance, and neuroscience show that WaveletDiff outperforms several diffusion baselines and competes with the VAE/transformer‑based MSDformer, achieving lower discriminative and Context‑FID scores while using fewer parameters and less training time.

By Yu-Hsiang Wang, Olgica Milenkovic
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility

arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).

By Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao, Ruijun Ma, Tatiana Konstantinova, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Boris Oreshkin, Kin G. Olivares
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 27

Tabular Deep Learning for Algorithmic Trading: Cross-Regime Bayesian Optimisation for Equity Signal Generation

The paper explores tabular deep learning for equity signal generation, training five model classes on daily data from about 300 large‑cap US stocks over eleven years. By using Bayesian optimisation that targets trading performance across three distinct market regimes, the authors achieve regime‑robust hyperparameter selection, yielding out‑of‑sample signal precision above random and a Hybrid ensemble (XGBoost + TabNet) with an annualised return of 51.26% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.44. The study also finds that alternative data adds limited value beyond technical and fundamental features, and that the ensemble’s outperformance is driven by stock selection rather than market exposure.

arXiv AI
Jun 3

Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels

arXiv:2606. 02886v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events.

By Jose Marie Antonio Mi\~noza, Rex Gregor Laylo, Sebastian C. Iba\~nez
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

Frequency-aware forecasting for short-term typhoon gust prediction

The paper introduces WDANet, a frequency‑aware forecasting framework that uses stationary wavelet decomposition, FiLM, and a dual‑branch encoder‑decoder to separately model trend and fluctuation components in typhoon gust prediction. Applied to offshore Western Pacific wind data, WDANet outperforms ECMWF‑HRES for short lead times, achieving higher accuracy within the first 6 hours and better RMSE/MAE during extreme wind events. The study suggests WDANet could improve offshore wind power operations, disaster warnings, and risk mitigation.

By Xuefei Wang, Tingyi Liu, Heng Zhang, Shengjun Zhang