arXiv AI

Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels

arXiv:2606. 02886v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events.

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 27

Precipitation Downscaling Using Foundation Model-Conditioned Diffusion

The study evaluates three conditioning strategies for a denoising diffusion probabilistic model to downscale daily precipitation for the Colorado River Basin. Channel concatenation of upsampled coarse predictors yields the lowest point‑wise CRPS and MSE but tends to over‑smooth high‑intensity events. Cross‑attention conditioning—both with a learned encoder and with the frozen encoder of the pretrained Prithvi‑WxC weather foundation model—provides better distributional realism, improved spectral fidelity, and stronger performance on extreme events, especially when data are limited.

By Victor Nascimento Ribeiro, Jorge Guevara, Jorge Sebastian Moraga, Chris Lucas, Natalie Lord, Andrew Taylor, Edward Lockhart, Will Trojak, Johannes Schmude, Anne Jones

diffusion

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 26

CSU-PCAST: A Dual-Branch Transformer Framework for medium-range ensemble Precipitation Forecasting

arXiv:2510. 20769v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models.

By Tianyi Xiong, Haonan Chen, Kelly Mahoney, Jingyin Tang, Tim Smith, Janice Bytheway

llms rag safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Sep 23

FAST-ML: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Framework for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

arXiv:2609.25505v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics nu...

By Shijie Xiao, Jonathan Lin, Thomas Ehrmann, Ali Sarhadi

safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 11

Deep Learning Imputation of Missing Radius of Maximum Winds (Rmax) Values in Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Data

arXiv:2608. 09683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic coastal hazard assessments require accurate characterization of tropical cyclone (TC) parameters, yet datasets often contain missing records for the radius of maximum winds (Rmax), a key variable in Joint Probability Method analyses.

By Swastik Agrawal, Nishkal Hundia, Ziyue Liu, Michelle Bensi

fine-tuning

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 9

Physics-Guided Dual Decoding and Spectral Supervision for Global 3D Hydrometeor Prediction

arXiv:2606. 08563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables.

By Dandan Chen, Yaqiang Wang

safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Sep 16

IRENE: A Convolutional GRU Ensemble Model for Radar Precipitation Nowcasting over Italy

IRENE is a deep learning model that provides probabilistic short‑range precipitation nowcasts over Italy at 1 km spatial and 5‑minute temporal resolution. It uses an encoder–forecaster architecture built on multi‑scale Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (ConvGRUs) and is trained on national radar composites, with an importance‑sampling scheme and the almost‑fair Continuous Ranked Probability Score as its primary loss. Three training variants—standard, adversarial (IRENE‑GAN), and spectrally constrained (IRENE‑GAN‑RAPSD)—outperform benchmark methods STEPS and DGMR in probabilistic skill, though the advantage in mean absolute error is limited to the first 90 minutes.

By Alessandro Camilletti, Gabriele Franch, Elena Tomasi, Marco Cristoforetti

diffusion benchmarks safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Sep 1

Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

arXiv:2608.30795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the nume...

By Rodrigo Almeida, Noelia Otero, Jost Arndt, Simon Baur, Wojciech Samek, Jackie Ma

fine-tuning

arXiv Statistics ML

Sep 22

Forecasting threshold exceedance of atmospheric variables at a specific location

arXiv:2605.31079v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate short-term forecasting of extreme weather events is important for early warning and risk mitigation. We compare two approaches for p...

By Roberta Baggio, Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Muzy

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 10

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Wildfire Danger Forecasting

arXiv:2509. 25017v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems.

By Spyros Kondylatos, Nikolas Papadopoulos, Gustau Camps-Valls, Ioannis Papoutsis

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 26

Otter Weather: Skillful and Computationally Efficient Medium-Range Weather Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 26421v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets.

By Cristiana Diaconu, Jonas Scholz, Aliaksandra Shysheya, Stratis Markou, Payel Mukhopadhyay, Miles Cranmer, Richard E. Turner

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 12

Deep Learning-Based Statistical Downscaling of Sea Surface Temperature Using a Residual Corrective Neural Network

arXiv:2608. 10022v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The large-scale oceanic and atmospheric forecasts provided by global climate models typically lack sufficient resolution to accurately capture the response of the coastal ocean to atmospheric forcing and coastal circulation that drive fine-scale SST variability.

By Onkar Jadhav, Tim French, Ivica Janekovic, Nicole L. Jones, Matthew Rayson

arXiv AI

Jun 4

Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Short-Term Flood Prediction

arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.

By Tewodros Syum Gebre, Jagrati Talreja, Leila Hashemi-Beni

safety

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