The study evaluates three conditioning strategies for a denoising diffusion probabilistic model to downscale daily precipitation for the Colorado River Basin. Channel concatenation of upsampled coarse predictors yields the lowest point‑wise CRPS and MSE but tends to over‑smooth high‑intensity events. Cross‑attention conditioning—both with a learned encoder and with the frozen encoder of the pretrained Prithvi‑WxC weather foundation model—provides better distributional realism, improved spectral fidelity, and stronger performance on extreme events, especially when data are limited.
By Victor Nascimento Ribeiro, Jorge Guevara, Jorge Sebastian Moraga, Chris Lucas, Natalie Lord, Andrew Taylor, Edward Lockhart, Will Trojak, Johannes Schmude, Anne Jones
arXiv:2510. 20769v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models.
By Tianyi Xiong, Haonan Chen, Kelly Mahoney, Jingyin Tang, Tim Smith, Janice Bytheway
arXiv:2609.25505v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics nu...
By Shijie Xiao, Jonathan Lin, Thomas Ehrmann, Ali Sarhadi
arXiv:2608. 09683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic coastal hazard assessments require accurate characterization of tropical cyclone (TC) parameters, yet datasets often contain missing records for the radius of maximum winds (Rmax), a key variable in Joint Probability Method analyses.
By Swastik Agrawal, Nishkal Hundia, Ziyue Liu, Michelle Bensi
arXiv:2606. 08563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables.
By Dandan Chen, Yaqiang Wang
IRENE is a deep learning model that provides probabilistic short‑range precipitation nowcasts over Italy at 1 km spatial and 5‑minute temporal resolution. It uses an encoder–forecaster architecture built on multi‑scale Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (ConvGRUs) and is trained on national radar composites, with an importance‑sampling scheme and the almost‑fair Continuous Ranked Probability Score as its primary loss. Three training variants—standard, adversarial (IRENE‑GAN), and spectrally constrained (IRENE‑GAN‑RAPSD)—outperform benchmark methods STEPS and DGMR in probabilistic skill, though the advantage in mean absolute error is limited to the first 90 minutes.
By Alessandro Camilletti, Gabriele Franch, Elena Tomasi, Marco Cristoforetti