arXiv Machine Learning By Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao, Ruijun Ma, Tatiana Konstantinova, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Boris Oreshkin, Kin G. Olivares

Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

VertiFuseX: Generalizable Financial Forecasting via Multi-Stream Temporal Fusion

VertiFuseX is a hybrid LSTM architecture that fuses multi‑scale temporal representations at the penultimate layer, stacking features from LSTM, Bi‑LSTM, and St‑LSTM branches and a parallel DNN stream. On 15 years of global equity index data, it reduces MAPE by 30‑54% and improves MAE and RMSE by over 40% compared to LSTM baselines, outperforming seven state‑of‑the‑art models across 33 metric‑dataset comparisons. The model is lightweight (675k parameters, 2.6 MB footprint) with 1.5 ms/sample inference latency and demonstrates robust, interpretable forecasting with reduced drawdowns in algorithmic trading simulations.

By Aashish Bohra, Vivek Vijay
arXiv AI
Aug 10

Seeking SOTA: Time-Series Forecasting Must Adopt Taxonomy-Specific Evaluation to Dispel Illusory Gains

arXiv:2603. 15506v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods.

By Raeid Saqur, Christoph Bergmeir, Blanka Horvath, Daniel Schmidt, Frank Rudzicz, Terry Lyons
arXiv Machine Learning
2d ago

The Nixtlaverse: An Open-Source Ecosystem for Forecasting

arXiv:2609.39741v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large forecasting applications often combine statistical, machine-learning, and neural models. These families solve the same problem but differ in fitt...

By Olivier Sprangers, Max Mergenthaler Canseco, Marco Peixeiro, Saul Caballero Ramirez, Mariana Menchero Garc\'ia, Jing-Qiang Goh, Han Wang, Nikhil Gupta, Rogelio Melo, Senbong Gee, Cristian Challu