arXiv Machine Learning

A Review of the Long Horizon Forecasting Problem in Time Series Analysis

arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

GateTS: Versatile and Efficient Forecasting via Attention-Inspired routed Mixture-of-Experts

GateTS introduces a streamlined univariate forecasting model that merges sparse Mixture-of-Experts computation with an attention-inspired gating mechanism, eliminating the need for auxiliary load‑balancing losses. The architecture achieves superior predictive accuracy across both short‑ and long‑term horizons, including intermittent signals, while using far fewer parameters than leading transformer models such as PatchTST. Empirical tests on diverse datasets show GateTS is computationally more efficient than LSTM, enabling cost‑effective inference for real‑world time‑series applications.

By Kyrylo Yemets, Mykola Lukashchuk, Ivan Izonin
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 2

An Input-Frugal Deep Learning Framework for Weather-Driven National Crop-Yield Forecasting: A Case Study of Brazilian Soybean

The paper introduces a lightweight deep learning framework that forecasts Brazilian soybean yields using only routine weather data and two simple static inputs (crop year and agro-environmental label). Across 20 seasons, transformer-based models achieved the highest accuracy, outperforming traditional ridge regression and a moving‑average baseline by nearly 48%. Ablation studies show that the static inputs and spatial expansion improve performance without adding complexity, and SHAP analysis highlights the importance of crop year and weather variables in driving yield variations.

By Fernando Dupin da Cunha Mello (Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil), Prashant Kumar (Global Centre for Clean Air Research), Erick G. Sperandio Nascimento (Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil)
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 8

CF-JEPA: Mask-free forward prediction with asymmetric encoder utilization for time-series representation learning

arXiv:2606. 07031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Self-supervised learning (SSL) for time-series representation learning is dominated by two paradigms: contrastive methods, which face challenges in constructing positive or negative pairs, and masking-based methods, which disrupt the temporal continuity of time-series signals.

By Jaehoon Lee, Sunghyun Sim