arXiv Machine Learning

Frequency-aware forecasting for short-term typhoon gust prediction

The paper introduces WDANet, a frequency‑aware forecasting framework that uses stationary wavelet decomposition, FiLM, and a dual‑branch encoder‑decoder to separately model trend and fluctuation components in typhoon gust prediction. Applied to offshore Western Pacific wind data, WDANet outperforms ECMWF‑HRES for short lead times, achieving higher accuracy within the first 6 hours and better RMSE/MAE during extreme wind events. The study suggests WDANet could improve offshore wind power operations, disaster warnings, and risk mitigation.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting

arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.

By Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen, Dazhao Du, Song Guo, Lei Bai
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 20

Tianmu-TC: Physics-constraints Generative Artificial Intelligence for Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Tianmu-TC is a physics‑constraints generative AI framework designed for global tropical cyclone forecasting. Trained on Western North Pacific data, it produces controllable outputs with reduced uncertainty, outperforming both deterministic and ensemble meteorological AI models as well as the ECMWF NWP system across global ocean basins. The model also demonstrates strong performance in challenging scenarios such as data sparsity, anomaly tracks, rapid intensification, and weakening, while maintaining significantly lower computational cost.

By Shiqi Zhang, Pan Mu, Cheng Huang, Hanting Yan, Yuchao Zhu, Jinglin Zhang, Shengyong Chen, Shoujuan Shu, Cong Bai