The paper presents a hybrid model that combines a four‑parameter water‑balance core with a Random Forest residual correction and conformal prediction to generate 90‑percent confidence intervals for soil moisture forecasts. The risk‑aware rule uses the lower bound of these intervals to trigger irrigation decisions, improving early detection of management‑threshold crossings while maintaining precision. Evaluation on three years of hourly data from a Mediterranean cropland station shows the hybrid outperforms nine baselines, achieving up to +27.4 % skill at three hours and demonstrating that uncertainty quantification dictates the reliable lead time for irrigation advice.
By Andrea Scariolo
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
Deep learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art in time series forecasting, yet their accuracy varies considerably across samples, as some instances remain inherently difficult to predict. Reject option mechanisms, which allow models to abstain from high-risk predictions, are well established in classification and regression but underexplored in forecasting.
The paper introduces a schema‑adaptive action‑conditioned Joint‑Embedding Predictive Architecture (SAAC‑JEPA) for cross‑machine CNC transfer when only a subset of sensors overlap between source and target machines. Experiments show that pretraining does not improve source‑only forecasting, but a carefully selected action‑conditioned JEPA model achieves a zero‑shot RMSE of 0.546 on the target, outperforming persistence but falling short of certain baseline models. Ablation studies reveal that adding RevIN improves RMSE but harms calibration, and limited post‑lock adaptation can further reduce error.
By Ayoub Louaye Bouaziz, Matthieu Ostertag, Anton Demasles
arXiv:2610.14863v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Data-driven weather forecasting models are commonly trained on ERA5, yet operational deployment must use timely initial states from physics-based numer...
By Mutian Xi, Xinyu Su, Xiaohui Zhong, Hao Li
The study presents a deployment‑aware framework for forecasting spring discharge and groundwater levels in the Edwards Aquifer over 1‑12 week horizons using 79 years of hydroclimatic data. Five machine‑learning families—extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, LSTM, CNN, and Transformers—were compared, with extreme gradient boosting consistently delivering the highest reliability (R² ≥ 0.94) and strong agreement with operational drought thresholds. The validated models were integrated into a five‑agent operational architecture that automates data acquisition, model selection, prediction, threshold monitoring, verification, literature retrieval, and reporting.
By Pramod Lekhak, Chetan Sharma, Hakan Ba\c{s}a\u{g}ao\u{g}lu, F. Paul Bertetti, Debaditya Chakraborty
The paper investigates when online adaptation benefits edge time‑series forecasting under distribution drift, using a leakage‑free streaming protocol on six public multivariate datasets. It shows that the warmup budget for static baselines and the choice of learning rate can bias perceived adaptation gains, and that a validation‑only procedure selecting warmup and optimizer rates yields Adam outperforming SGD with momentum in most settings. The study also examines accuracy versus adaptation‑state memory and per‑update latency for different adaptation strategies, highlighting parameter‑efficient variants that are nondominated on the memory axis.
By Takumi Fujimoto, Hiroaki Nishi
KNOU‑Flood extends the open AIFL recipe for global streamflow forecasting by retaining a single‑layer LSTM and two‑stage transfer learning while adding a longer 424‑day input window, lead‑aware forecast inputs, and GraphCast as an additional forecast source. The model also introduces a latent‑noise ensemble trained with the fair CRPS, achieving a median KGE′ of 0.65 at lead time 1 and 0.48 at lead time 10 across 2,099 test basins, outperforming AIFL and a 1,024‑unit baseline. The probabilistic head, GraphCast channels, longer window, and mixed fine‑tuning collectively reduce lead‑time decay, improve calibration, and enhance detection of multi‑year floods.
By Minjong Cheon
The paper introduces a regime‑diagnosis framework for industrial time‑series forecasting, highlighting that canonical loss functions embed fixed statistical priors that are violated in real‑world demand regimes such as zero‑inflation, skewness, and high variability. It proposes the Regime‑wise Relative Bias Vector (RBV) as a metric‑agnostic diagnostic that decomposes bias into an intrinsic floor and an excess attributable to training. A large‑scale study across 13 loss objectives and 60,000+ series demonstrates that regime‑aware diagnosis distinguishes optimization‑from‑bias failures and that regime‑aware training can eliminate pooling‑induced bias that mere capacity scaling cannot.
By Pengyu Nie, Chenglang Xu, Yaoshi Chen, Chaogan Ren, Wei Hu, Chao Yang, Jiangong Zhang
arXiv:2610.35314v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Source selection often favors similar data, yet marginal proximity need not identify the most useful pretraining source. We motivate a conditional alte...
By Gordei Verbii, Georgii Killinkarov, Vladimir Yafarov
arXiv:2609.37255v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are pretrained on heterogeneous collections containing billions of observations, yet their training windows are...
By Yike Li, Shaoxu Song, Jianmin Wang
arXiv:2609.01244v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Every supervised fine-tuning run forces the same chain of decisions, such as learning rate, batch size, LoRA or full fine-tuning, how many epochs, whic...
By Charles O'Neill, Mudith Jayasekara, Harry Partridge