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arXiv Machine Learning

An Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Mathematical-Machine-Learning Model for Smart Irrigation Decision Support

The paper presents a hybrid model that combines a four‑parameter water‑balance core with a Random Forest residual correction and conformal prediction to generate 90‑percent confidence intervals for soil moisture forecasts. The risk‑aware rule uses the lower bound of these intervals to trigger irrigation decisions, improving early detection of management‑threshold crossings while maintaining precision. Evaluation on three years of hourly data from a Mediterranean cropland station shows the hybrid outperforms nine baselines, achieving up to +27.4 % skill at three hours and demonstrating that uncertainty quantification dictates the reliable lead time for irrigation advice.

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