Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
arXiv:2609.38058v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) currently provide state-of-the-art results in forecasting tasks. They are available out-of-the-box and rely on...
By Chlo\'e Hashimoto-Cullen, Amaury Durand, Laurent Bozzi, Benjamin Guedj, Yannig Goude, Sylvain Le Corff
Data-DPO is a target model‑oriented supervised fine‑tuning data selection method that uses one‑step probing of the target model to generate pairwise data preferences, trains a lightweight reward model to capture these preferences, and then selects a training subset by combining target‑model preference, external quality scores, and marginal diversity. Experiments on Vision‑Flan and LLaVA‑CoT demonstrate that Data‑DPO consistently outperforms existing data selection baselines across multiple data budgets and even surpasses full data training performance.
By Peng Sun, Yi Yang, Antong Zhang, Chunxiao Li, Yanbo Wang, Dianbo Liu, xin chen, Kai Yu, Lu Chen, Tianfan Fu
arXiv:2607. 20002v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment.
By Shifeng Xie, Ambroise Odonnat, Zehao Xiao, Lei Zan, Malik Tiomoko, Lujia Pan, Themis Palpanas, Boris N. Oreshkin, Chenghao Liu, Keli Zhang
arXiv:2608. 13262v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have advanced primarily through architectural innovation, while training regimes for large-scale heterogeneous corpora remain under-explored.
By Hongjie Xia, Yiding Liu, Yifan Hu, Peiyuan Liu, Zewei Dong
Deep learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art in time series forecasting, yet their accuracy varies considerably across samples, as some instances remain inherently difficult to predict. Reject option mechanisms, which allow models to abstain from high-risk predictions, are well established in classification and regression but underexplored in forecasting.
arXiv:2605. 00015v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalization capability and data efficiency in time series forecasting through large-scale pretraining.
By Siyang Li, Yize Chen, Zijie Zhu, Yuxin Pan, Yan Guo, Ming Huang, Hui Xiong
arXiv:2608. 14054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities.
By Juan Pablo Villa Serna, Rohan Asthana, Vasileios Belagiannis
The paper introduces CASP-LLM, a coverage‑aware semantic prompting framework that mitigates bias toward dominant temporal patterns in prompt‑based time series forecasting. Unlike traditional similarity‑based retrieval that selects top‑K candidates by cosine similarity, CASP‑LLM uses usage‑tracking and a saturating‑gate regularizer to diversify prompt selection without adding learnable parameters. Experiments on six long‑term and the M4 short‑term benchmarks show that CASP‑LLM matches or outperforms similarity‑based LLM forecasters in most settings, with failures traced to cross‑batch usage rather than within‑retrieval redundancy.
By Daeun Ji, Minkyoung Kim, Dongkuk Kim, Yohan Lee, Beomsoo Kim, Beakcheol Jang
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks.
arXiv:2608. 06748v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic long-term time-series forecasting commonly relies on trained models.
By Yang Zhang, Rui Su
arXiv:2606. 10798v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series.
By Yosuke Yamaguchi, Issei Suemitsu, Yuki Kajihara, Wenpeng Wei