The study presents a deployment‑aware framework for forecasting spring discharge and groundwater levels in the Edwards Aquifer over 1‑12 week horizons using 79 years of hydroclimatic data. Five machine‑learning families—extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, LSTM, CNN, and Transformers—were compared, with extreme gradient boosting consistently delivering the highest reliability (R² ≥ 0.94) and strong agreement with operational drought thresholds. The validated models were integrated into a five‑agent operational architecture that automates data acquisition, model selection, prediction, threshold monitoring, verification, literature retrieval, and reporting.
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
EvoBench is a diagnostic benchmark framework designed to reveal where and when machine‑learning models for environmental variables fail, rather than relying on a single average accuracy score. It tracks model performance over time and across spatial extrapolation, highlighting issues such as non‑stationarity, poor performance at unmonitored sites, and under‑prediction of rare events like floods. In a case study on daily streamflow prediction across 9,000 U.S. basins, EvoBench shows that no model dominates all scenarios and that targeted fixes can mitigate identified weaknesses.
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
The paper presents a Vision Transformer-based model for subseasonal soil‑moisture forecasting over Europe, showing that forecast skill depends heavily on how the prediction problem is formulated. By using residual learning and forecasting root‑zone soil moisture in physical units, the model outperforms persistence and existing deep‑learning and ECMWF baselines, providing well‑calibrated probabilistic predictions. However, predicting flash drought onset—defined by rapid multi‑pentad intensification—remains a challenge shared by all current subseasonal‑to‑seasonal systems.
The paper introduces the Mass‑Conserving Perceptron (MCP), a physics‑aware AI framework that enforces conservation laws while learning hydrological process relationships from data. By progressively adding physically meaningful components—such as bounded soil storage, state‑dependent conductivity, variable porosity, infiltration capacity, surface ponding, vertical drainage, and nonlinear water‑table dynamics—to a single MCP storage unit, the authors demonstrate that predictive skill for daily streamflow improves across 15 U.S. catchments. The study finds that the impact of each process representation varies with hydroclimate, with vertical drainage boosting performance in arid and snow‑dominated basins but hindering it in rainfall‑dominated ones, while surface ponding has minimal effect; the best MCP configurations rival LSTM benchmarks while retaining explicit physical interpretability.
arXiv:2607. 23983v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer.
arXiv:2603.25779v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Groundwater represents a key element of the water cycle, yet it exhibits complex and context-dependent relationships that make its modeling c...
arXiv:2610.09770v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models acro...
arXiv:2607. 26492v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) establishes a modeling paradigm in which conceptual hydrologic models can be reformulated as physically constrained, conceptually interpretable neural networks.