arXiv AI
Loss-Guided Pretraining Data Selection for Time-Series Foundation Models
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Aurora-X: Built for Extreme Time Series Forecasting
Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
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Latent Inference-Time Guidance of Time Series Foundation Models
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Data-DPO: Direct Preference Optimization for Target Model Data Selection in LLM Post-Training
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Post-Training in Time Series Foundation Models: A Unifying Framework
arXiv:2607. 20002v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment.
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arXiv:2608. 13262v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have advanced primarily through architectural innovation, while training regimes for large-scale heterogeneous corpora remain under-explored.
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Selective Time Series Forecasting via Metalearning
Deep learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art in time series forecasting, yet their accuracy varies considerably across samples, as some instances remain inherently difficult to predict. Reject option mechanisms, which allow models to abstain from high-risk predictions, are well established in classification and regression but underexplored in forecasting.