arXiv:2602. 21160v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In safety-critical classification, the cost of failure is often asymmetric, yet Bayesian deep learning summarises epistemic uncertainty with a single scalar, mutual information (MI), that cannot distinguish whether a model's ignorance involves a benign or safety-critical class.
arXiv:2605. 08446v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian neural networks are typically trained against the evidence lower bound (ELBO), whose Jensen gap closes only when the variational posterior is exact.
The paper introduces CalSAM, a lightweight adaptation framework that fine‑tunes only the mask decoder of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) while keeping its encoders frozen. CalSAM employs a Feature Fisher Information Penalty (FIP) to reduce encoder sensitivity to domain shift and a Confidence Misalignment Penalty (CMP) to curb overconfident voxel‑wise errors. Experiments on cross‑center, scanner‑shift, and motion‑corrupted brain MRI datasets show significant gains in Dice similarity coefficient, Hausdorff distance, and expected calibration error, with only a modest training‑time overhead.
arXiv:2609.01072v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 prediction. Accuracy captures only...
arXiv:2607. 18088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard evaluation of many recognition systems contains distribution shift by construction, since benchmarks place disjoint conditions in the training and test splits.
The paper introduces an uncertainty‑driven training framework for 3D CT lung nodule classification that uses validation‑based uncertainty estimates to reweight the loss, aiming to improve predictive performance and probability calibration. Two uncertainty quantification methods—Monte Carlo Dropout and Evidential Deep Learning—are evaluated across multiple backbone architectures (ResNet, DenseNet, EfficientNet, ViT, Swin) on the LIDC‑IDRI and NoduleMNIST3D datasets. The approach yields comparable classification accuracy to conventional training while substantially reducing expected calibration error, especially on convolutional backbones, and shows that simple temperature scaling can also achieve strong calibration.
The paper introduces V-ECE, a variational estimator for general Expected Calibration Errors (ECE) that avoids binning and works with any convex divergence, including Lp distances. By using prediction‑dependent proper scores and a residual‑fitted temperature scaling via gradient boosting, V‑ECE provides a lower‑bound estimate of true calibration error. Experiments on semi‑synthetic benchmarks show V‑ECE outperforms existing binary and multiclass estimators, with additional theoretical insights on bias and confidence estimation.
arXiv:2607. 18162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The soft-label Bayes-error estimator beta(z) = E[min(z, 1-z)] of Ishida et al.
arXiv:2608. 19376v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Split-conformal prediction provides marginal coverage under exchangeability and is increasingly used as an abstention layer for zero-shot vision-language models (VLMs).
arXiv:2607. 13682v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Radiative Gaussian splatting reconstructs sparse-view CT fast and accurately, and recent work attaches per-Gaussian posteriors to yield per-voxel uncertainty maps.
MVC-Bench is a new benchmark designed to evaluate the calibration of vision‑language models (VLMs) and medical VLMs (Medical‑VLMs) for medical image classification. It tests calibration across robustness to modality, backbone, and domain shift; effectiveness of calibration strategies and prompt‑tuning methods; and stability under prompt‑template and random‑seed variations. The benchmark includes eight backbones, three medical modalities (fundus imaging, histopathology, chest X‑ray), and compares post‑hoc, train‑time, and zero‑shot calibration approaches, reporting accuracy, Expected Calibration Error (ECE), Maximum Calibration Error (MCE), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) over 1,638 experiments, while also proposing a Multi‑Class Margin (MCM) regularization technique that improves ECE in most settings.
arXiv:2606. 28654v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep Neural Network (DNN) classifiers suffer from poor calibration when their softmax outputs (predictive confidence) deviate from the empirical likelihoods.