arXiv Machine Learning By Shreyas Pradeepkumar Khandale

The Calibration Channel Determines the Bayes-Error Proxy: An Exact Law for Temperature-Induced Distortion

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arXiv:2607. 18162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The soft-label Bayes-error estimator beta(z) = E[min(z, 1-z)] of Ishida et al.

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arXiv AI
3d ago

Signal-Routed Temperature Scaling: Low-Capacity Risk-Conditioned Calibration for Small Validation Budgets

Signal‑Routed Temperature Scaling (SRTS‑BCE) is a 10‑parameter, argmax‑preserving calibration method that separates calibration objectives from adaptive capacity. It cross‑fits a correctness‑risk score over six logit statistics and assigns a top‑label BCE temperature to each of three risk groups, generalizing TvA‑TS when K=1. Experiments on fine‑tuned CIFAR‑100 and ViT‑B/16 show that SRTS‑BCE reduces ECE from 1.65 to 0.96 with a small calibration budget, outperforming higher‑capacity SMART+BCE when only 250 examples are available, and revealing a budget‑dependent ranking reversal on Swin‑T.

By Wenhao Liang, Liangwei Nathan Zheng, Lin Yue, Wei Emma Zhang, Mingyu Guo, Olaf Maennel, Weitong Chen