Temperature Scaling Is Not Enough: Calibration Gaps Under Human Label Distributions
arXiv:2607. 13423v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temperature scaling is the dominant post-hoc calibration method in modern deep learning.
arXiv:2607. 18162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The soft-label Bayes-error estimator beta(z) = E[min(z, 1-z)] of Ishida et al.
arXiv:2607. 13423v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temperature scaling is the dominant post-hoc calibration method in modern deep learning.
arXiv:2608. 10372v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-hoc calibration aligns a classifier's predicted confidences with its empirical accuracy without retraining.
arXiv:2606. 03245v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Concepts of calibration formalize the compatibility between probabilistic predictions and the respective outcomes.
arXiv:2607. 10804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications where distribution shift is un-avoidable.
arXiv:2608. 05064v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Small open-weight language models increasingly run in private, offline, and cost-sensitive settings, where the key deployment question is not only what a model answers but when it should defer to a human.
Reliable confidence estimates are essential in semantic segmentation, especially in safety-critical settings where overconfident errors can mislead downstream decisions. Yet modern segmentation models often remain miscalibrated.
arXiv:2408. 08998v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications.
arXiv:2607. 07745v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While accuracy, robustness, and calibration are all essential for reliable neural networks, they are often studied separately; developing models that satisfy all three simultaneously remains a central challenge.
arXiv:2505. 15437v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable probability estimates by classifiers are essential in high-risk applications.
arXiv:2502. 15131v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the fundamental problem of calibrating a linear binary classifier of the form $\sigma(\hat{w}^\top x)$, where the feature vector $x$ is Gaussian, $\sigma$ is a link function, and $\hat{w}$ is an estimator of the true linear weight $w^\star$.
arXiv:2602. 21160v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In safety-critical classification, the cost of failure is often asymmetric, yet Bayesian deep learning summarises epistemic uncertainty with a single scalar, mutual information (MI), that cannot distinguish whether a model's ignorance involves a benign or safety-critical class.
arXiv:2607. 12928v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the online binary sequential calibration problem.