arXiv:2606. 10934v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2509. 11208v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers used for evidence-grounded binary adjudication (e.
arXiv:2609.25388v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal p...
arXiv:2606. 08517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility.
arXiv:2507. 11768v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently.
arXiv:2607. 11920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Evaluating decisions made under uncertainty is hard when labeled outcomes are scarce, costly, or confounded with luck.
arXiv:2510. 15824v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This article considers an online version of conformal inference, called adaptive conformal inference [ACI] and introduced by Gibbs and Cand\`es (2021): prediction sets are issued sequentially, after observing features and before the outcomes are revealed.
The paper introduces the concept of task‑conditioned active observability, defining the minimal interaction cost needed for an autonomous agent to identify task‑relevant states while guaranteeing safe abstention. It formalizes this complexity, proving that task‑predictive equivalence yields a unique minimal sufficient quotient that preserves complexity and eliminates unnecessary distinctions. The authors present theoretical characterizations for deterministic and noisy regimes, and demonstrate a certified observer that reduces sensor usage and model steps while maintaining zero false acceptances in extensive high‑dimensional trials.
The paper introduces loss‑conditioned state execution, a model‑agnostic technique that decides whether to apply a world model’s proposed state change or keep the current state based on whether the change reduces downstream loss. It formalizes state movability as the existence of a loss‑reducing feasible correction and constructs loss‑specific proposals from predictive distributions, executing them only when a groupwise lower confidence bound on loss improvement is positive. Experiments on forecasting and dynamics benchmarks show that the method accepts updates for a subset of cases, achieving lower bounded loss than persistence or always executing the proposal, and highlights that event predictability and loss‑based decisions must be evaluated separately.
arXiv:2608. 15645v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transporting a causal conclusion from a source study population to a target one is a fundamental problem in causal inference.
The paper proposes a transparent, user‑configurable rule for selecting arguments in deliberative polls, replacing opaque learned rankers. It formalises argument selection over bipolar justification sets, introduces seven civic recommender criteria, and presents a one‑hop reversed endorsement flow rule that meets them. Experiments on 17,000 simulated runs show the rule performs comparably to random on coverage but outperforms other methods on endorsement mass and robustness under adversarial pressure.