arXiv Machine Learning By Leon Chlon, Ahmed Karim, Maggie Chlon, MarcAntonio Awada

Predictable Compression Failures: Order Sensitivity and Information Budgeting for Evidence-Grounded Binary Adjudication

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arXiv:2509. 11208v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers used for evidence-grounded binary adjudication (e.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 24

LLMs are Bayesian, In Expectation, Not in Realization

arXiv:2507. 11768v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently.

By Leon Chlon, Fatima Sheaib, Zein Khamis, Maggie Chlon, Mahdi El Zein, MarcAntonio M. Awada
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 13

LODESTAR: Trustworthy Entropy Is Navigated, Not Merely Measured -- Reinforced Polarizer Keeps a Frozen LLM from Being Confidently Misled by the Wrong Evidence

arXiv:2608. 11922v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictive-distribution entropy makes a strong selection rule in retrieval-augmented question answering: across five QA benchmarks, keeping the candidate answer that a frozen respondent LLM produces with the lowest answer-token entropy lifts mean answer $F_1$ from 0.

By Po-Jen Ko, Che-Cheng Wu, Hung-Chun Hsu, Li-Yang Chang, Chuan-Ju Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control

arXiv:2606. 08517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility.

By Xiaoli Yu, Jiamiao Liu
arXiv AI
Sep 25

Certified Task-Conditioned Active Observability

The paper introduces the concept of task‑conditioned active observability, defining the minimal interaction cost needed for an autonomous agent to identify task‑relevant states while guaranteeing safe abstention. It formalizes this complexity, proving that task‑predictive equivalence yields a unique minimal sufficient quotient that preserves complexity and eliminates unnecessary distinctions. The authors present theoretical characterizations for deterministic and noisy regimes, and demonstrate a certified observer that reduces sensor usage and model steps while maintaining zero false acceptances in extensive high‑dimensional trials.

By Linzhe Zhang, Changming Xu