arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2510. 07750v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions.
arXiv:2606. 05551v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable decision making pipelines powered by machine learning models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that come with explicit safety guarantees.
arXiv:2607. 05620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In many decision-making settings, new interventions are acceptable only if they do not reduce outcomes below some established threshold.
arXiv:2608. 13209v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many operational decisions are sequences of interventions under a cumulative resource limit, such as a maintenance schedule within a crew-hour budget.
arXiv:2609.17296v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Policy learning aims to determine who should be treated based on individual characteristics. In high-stakes settings such as medicine and public poli...
arXiv:2607. 14407v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many signal processing systems ultimately exist to {act}.
Policy learning aims to determine who should be treated based on individual characteristics. In high-stakes settings such as medicine and public policy where safety is a central concern, improving the...
The paper introduces a score‑calibrated robustness framework that transforms any fixed point predictor into a decision‑relevant uncertainty representation using distribution‑free conformal calibration. By employing the conformal score as the core unit of robustness, the authors derive both reliability‑based robust optimization and target‑oriented Conformal Robust Satisficing formulations, linking them through a shared robust decision frontier and a fragility measure. Experiments on synthetic data and a real online‑grocery inventory case study demonstrate the framework’s ability to improve reliability, reduce costs, and provide interpretable uncertainty scales for black‑box predictors.
The paper introduces a new approach to safety in contextual bandits with continuous actions by enforcing high‑probability constraints on the realized cost rather than on its expectation. It proposes the High‑Probability Constrained UCB algorithm, which balances optimistic reward exploration with pessimistic safety estimation. The authors provide theoretical regret guarantees for linear models and extend the analysis to general function classes, demonstrating experimentally that realized‑cost constraints significantly reduce safety violations compared to expected‑cost baselines.
arXiv:2606. 13884v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern decision systems increasingly rely on learned components whose outputs may be confident yet wrong, exposing downstream actions to costly errors.
arXiv:2505. 08908v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many researchers apply classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies.
The paper addresses the failure of online conformal prediction when predictions influence actions that determine which outcomes are used for calibration. It introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction (PW‑OCP), an inverse‑propensity‑weighted recursion that debiases calibration, and a doubly robust variant (DR‑OCP) that further reduces bias. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing demonstrate that PW‑OCP and DR‑OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret while preserving prediction‑set sharpness.