arXiv:2609.09855v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Although probabilistic statements are ubiquitous, foundational disagreements persist about their understanding, as exemplified by debates between Bayes...
arXiv:2410. 14843v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification.
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.
arXiv:2509.24988v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remain...
arXiv:2603. 12037v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Foundation models based on prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have shown strong empirical performance in causal inference by framing the task as an in-context learning problem.
Generative models -- diffusion and flow matching -- are increasingly used to solve partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems, enforcing the governing physics as a \emph{hard constraint} (via projection or guidance) and reporting the resulting samples as a Bayesian posterior with calibrated uncertainty. We show that this widely adopted recipe samples the wrong distribution.
arXiv:2602. 04596v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayes-filtered transformers are transformers meta-learned on sequences from a prior predictive distribution to approximate the corresponding posterior predictive distribution.
ProximalFM is a transformer‑based model that uses prior‑data fitted networks (PFNs) to perform Bayesian proximal causal inference under hidden confounding. By training on synthetic data generated from structural causal models with oracle counterfactuals, it amortizes the Bayesian operator inversion into a single forward pass, producing posterior estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). The approach consistently outperforms prior methods across various proximal regimes, especially when latent confounding is strong and proxy variables are weakly informative, and it requires no dataset‑specific tuning.
arXiv:2601.17609v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In domains like medicine and finance, large-scale labeled data is costly and often unavailable, leading to models trained on small datasets that st...
arXiv:2609.25388v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal p...
The paper extends active inference to incorporate learning of observation and transition parameters by assigning each factor its own Dirichlet prior, thereby preserving information‑gain corrections that vanish under standard mean‑field factorization. This approach yields a closed‑form objective whose stationary point is solved by sum‑product message passing with augmented factor functions. Experiments on two grid POMDPs demonstrate that the resulting planner reliably learns the model and reaches the goal in every episode, outperforming planners that lack this learning capability.