Approximate Universal Prediction under Interaction
Read the original on arXiv Statistics ML →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Statistics ML.
The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Statistics ML.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2609.37660v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study nonpreemptive contextual queueing bandits in a single-server system. Each job is represented by a $d$-dimensional context vector; in each roun...
The paper addresses an online resource allocation problem where a budget must be distributed among multiple arms under censored feedback. Each arm yields a reward only if it is activated by an unknown Bernoulli process and the allocated budget exceeds a random threshold from an unknown parametric distribution. The authors establish a worst‑case regret lower bound of Σ(√T), propose the RA‑UCB algorithm achieving near‑optimal regret when the budget is known, and introduce MG‑UCB for unknown, round‑dependent budgets, validating both approaches experimentally.
The paper investigates how well practical machine‑learning algorithms approximate Solomonoff’s universal predictor when trained by minimizing log‑loss over diverse datasets. It establishes tight bounds on the worst‑case increase in prediction error caused by approximating the Bayesian mixture predictor, showing that while the excess error can be large in low‑prior environments, it remains bounded on average and under distribution shifts. The authors also extend their analysis to finite‑sample settings relevant to neural networks and Transformers.
arXiv:2610. 01377v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study causal logistic bandits with counterfactual fairness constraints.
arXiv:2608. 13209v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many operational decisions are sequences of interventions under a cumulative resource limit, such as a maintenance schedule within a crew-hour budget.