arXiv AI

WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

arXiv:2606. 10934v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

DoTime: A Synthetic Benchmark Generator for Interventional and Counterfactual Time Series

arXiv:2607. 27263v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science.

By Dennis Thumm, Billy Tim Anthony, Ying Chen
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 14

Resist and Update: Counterfactual Report Coordinates for Incentive-Compatible LLMs

Aligned language models routinely misreport under non-evidential incentive pressure: they agree with a confident user or overstate certainty even when their internal belief is unchanged. We cast this as a failure of internal incentive-compatibility (IC) and present a method for learning and certifying counterfactual report mediators that hold a model's reports to a causal contract: invariant to forbidden influences (pressure, prestige, restyling) and responsive to licensed ones (genuine evidence).