arXiv:2607. 00473v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: How many days of early behavior suffice for subscription churn prediction?
arXiv:2606. 06776v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Customer churn prediction is a central task in customer analytics, particularly in non-contractual, pay-per-use service environments where disengagement is not explicitly observed and must be inferred from behavioral inactivity.
The paper investigates how seasonal labeling in customer churn and decline early‑warning systems can misclassify seasonal activity as decline, leading to false alarms. By aligning the baseline to the same calendar months one year earlier, the authors demonstrate a significant improvement in model performance (ROC‑AUC rises from 0.767 to 0.864) and a reduction in the number of flagged accounts. The study quantifies the extent of the problem across public and production datasets and shows that the proposed correction reduces intervention load while maintaining predictive accuracy.
arXiv:2608. 11555v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Practitioners enrich customer-return models with ever more signals (lifetime value, category, recency/frequency, calendar, geography), and the temporal-point-process (TPP) literature follows suit with covariate- and external-covariate-conditioned intensities.
arXiv:2608. 14367v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The early detection of delayed cases in business processes is a critical capability for organizations.
arXiv:2606. 00169v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Increased competition and the growing similarity of products and services offered by retailers have lowered the barriers for customers to switch to competitors.
arXiv:2606. 30664v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The coupon incentive is one of the most common tools marketers use to court users to engage with a business at various stages of the customer life cycle.
arXiv:2604. 08870v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration.
arXiv:2607. 10466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data.
arXiv:2511. 03877v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions -- such as views, likes, or downloads -- are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews.
The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.
The paper presents a framework for integrating explainable AI into customer churn prediction for telecommunications. It benchmarks four classifiers—Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM—on the IBM Telco Customer Churn dataset, finding comparable performance with Logistic Regression achieving the highest AUC-ROC and LightGBM the highest accuracy. Explanations are provided via SHAP and LIME at both global and instance levels, and a four‑layer CRM integration architecture is proposed to translate risk scores and attribution vectors into actionable retention strategies, projecting a 3.3–5.3 percentage point reduction in churn and $199K–$319K savings per campaign cycle.
arXiv:2507. 07339v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc.