arXiv:2604. 08874v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This study proposes a temporal modeling framework with a counterfactual policy-simulation layer for student dropout in higher education, using LMS engagement data and administrative withdrawal records.
By Rafael da Silva, Jeff Eicher, Gregory Longo
EduRiskX is a neuro-symbolic framework that combines a temporal Transformer-based predictor with an F-Logic symbolic reasoning module to forecast students’ academic risk early in online courses. The neural part models longitudinal activity sequences, while the F-Logic rule base, grounded in Engagement Theory and the Student Integration Model, offers interpretable, rule-based explanations. On the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset, EduRiskX achieves an accuracy of 0.900 and an F1-score of 0.894 by week 38, detecting risk on average by week 9.32 with a 94.30% detection rate, outperforming state‑of‑the‑art time‑series and deep learning baselines.
By Yu Fu, Yongqi Kang, Yong Zhao, Rongfang Bie
arXiv:2606. 03689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs.
By Mariana Vargas Vieyra
arXiv:2606. 12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis.
By Minh-Khoi Pham, Luca Cotugno, Alina Sirbu, Tai Tan Mai, Martin Crane, Marija Bezbradica
The study audited seven public educational prediction datasets using four pre‑modeling reliability checks—baseline gap, split instability, null separation, and metadata adequacy under group‑aware holdout. Only three datasets passed all checks; the others failed either group‑aware generalization tests or lacked necessary provenance metadata. The audit revealed that cross‑group fragility, rather than weak iid performance, was the dominant failure mode, and that increasing model complexity did not resolve these structural issues.
By Yan Ma, Lizhuo Zhang
arXiv:2601. 22259v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event of interest occurs.
By Da In Kim, Wei Siang Lai, Kelly W. Zhang