arXiv:2604. 08870v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration.
arXiv:2604. 08874v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This study proposes a temporal modeling framework with a counterfactual policy-simulation layer for student dropout in higher education, using LMS engagement data and administrative withdrawal records.
EduRiskX is a neuro-symbolic framework that combines a temporal Transformer-based predictor with an F-Logic symbolic reasoning module to forecast students’ academic risk early in online courses. The neural part models longitudinal activity sequences, while the F-Logic rule base, grounded in Engagement Theory and the Student Integration Model, offers interpretable, rule-based explanations. On the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset, EduRiskX achieves an accuracy of 0.900 and an F1-score of 0.894 by week 38, detecting risk on average by week 9.32 with a 94.30% detection rate, outperforming state‑of‑the‑art time‑series and deep learning baselines.
arXiv:2606. 03689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs.
arXiv:2606. 12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis.
The study audited seven public educational prediction datasets using four pre‑modeling reliability checks—baseline gap, split instability, null separation, and metadata adequacy under group‑aware holdout. Only three datasets passed all checks; the others failed either group‑aware generalization tests or lacked necessary provenance metadata. The audit revealed that cross‑group fragility, rather than weak iid performance, was the dominant failure mode, and that increasing model complexity did not resolve these structural issues.
arXiv:2601. 22259v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event of interest occurs.
arXiv:2607. 10466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data.
arXiv:2606. 04564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched.
arXiv:2606. 13880v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate estimation of long-term care transition probabilities is central to disability insurance pricing, reserving, and solvency assessment.
arXiv:2212. 05260v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Proper scoring rules encourage probabilistic predictions that match the true underlying distribution and are central to model evaluation, with increasing relevance in automated workflows such as AutoML.
The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.
arXiv:2608. 01587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine-learning benchmarks often pair a label that aggregates a long temporal horizon with input observed through one or a few short windows.