arXiv:2608. 11555v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Practitioners enrich customer-return models with ever more signals (lifetime value, category, recency/frequency, calendar, geography), and the temporal-point-process (TPP) literature follows suit with covariate- and external-covariate-conditioned intensities.
arXiv:2608. 12652v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Benchmark contamination is diagnosed today with n-gram overlap, with likelihood-based membership inference, or with canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at dataset release.
The paper reports that language‑model agents used for customer‑relationship management can be misled by optimistic assertions from sales representatives in CRM records, leading to incorrect deal approvals. In a benchmark of 100 lead‑qualification tasks, models incorrectly cleared 29 of 31 deals where the representative’s claims contradicted company policies, with misalignment rates ranging from 87% to 97% across seven models. The authors propose diagnostic methods—including bucket analysis, same‑information controls, and compute‑step controls—to distinguish persuasion from information gaps and to quantify the impact of incentive‑misaligned witnesses.
arXiv:2609.07162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Several properties safety monitors are asked to certify, among them cross-tenant noninterference, sandbagging and evaluation awareness, are 2-safety hy...
The paper investigates how persistent memory in AI agents can lead to over‑trust in stale facts, creating a "Memory Trust Gap" that worsens as model capability increases. Using a benchmark with Benefit and Safety suites across Qwen3 models of varying sizes, the authors show that larger models are more prone to harmful over‑trust, especially when metadata is absent or misleading. They also demonstrate that mitigation strategies such as exposing metadata or pre‑resolving conflicts improve accuracy, but the effectiveness depends on model size and dataset.
arXiv:2607. 20129v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantized small autoregressive reasoning models can enter long, repetitive, or unproductive trajectories, yet inference-time compute is usually allocated without observing how a trajectory develops.
arXiv:2606. 00329v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recursive systems can enter collapse-like regimes -- self-reinforcing amplification, persistent recursion, and narrowing diversity that mask accelerating internal degradation -- before overt failure becomes visible.
arXiv:2607. 02640v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-time interaction models -- Moshi, MiniCPM-o, Qwen-Omni -- turn serving into a periodic real-time task: on every frame a session ingests streaming audio and must respond by a recurring wall-clock deadline, while its KV cache grows monotonically and stays pinned for the whole conversation.
arXiv:2609. 20193v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry.
arXiv:2607. 01537v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Certified world models estimate how long their predictions remain valid.
arXiv:2607. 25532v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Consider a model trained at a single hospital to predict patient recovery, where the measured feature $X$ bundles the patient's true health signal ($C$) with a systematic artefact from that hospital's equipment ($S$).
The paper investigates whether large language models’ reasoning traces truly contain early, informative signals or merely reflect budget and difficulty confounds. Using a restart‑controlled truncation probe, the authors compare continuation success rates against from‑scratch restart curves across 178 problem‑model pairs, finding that only one case shows prefix‑limited success and that continuing a model’s own prefix generally outperforms restarting. A difficulty‑controlled test and two generation‑free analyses reveal that early internal signals do not carry outcome information beyond a problem‑difficulty baseline, underscoring the need for proper counterfactual controls.
The paper investigates how seasonal labeling in customer churn and decline early‑warning systems can misclassify seasonal activity as decline, leading to false alarms. By aligning the baseline to the same calendar months one year earlier, the authors demonstrate a significant improvement in model performance (ROC‑AUC rises from 0.767 to 0.864) and a reduction in the number of flagged accounts. The study quantifies the extent of the problem across public and production datasets and shows that the proposed correction reduces intervention load while maintaining predictive accuracy.