The paper introduces NECA, a model‑agnostic augmentation technique that retrieves similar patients from the training set and transforms their organ‑dysfunction event onset times into cumulative event‑curve features for multiple future horizons (6h, 12h, 24h, 42h). These features are concatenated with the original patient representation and fed to standard downstream predictors, leading to improved PR‑AUC and ROC‑AUC on PhysioNet 2012 and a MIMIC‑IV subset across several organ‑dysfunction tasks. Ablation studies show that clinically meaningful retrieval and horizon‑specific neighbor risk are the main drivers of performance gains, especially for neurological dysfunction events.
arXiv:2608.29301v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting future organ dysfunction in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients is critical for early clinical intervention, yet existing machine learning ap...
arXiv:2602. 00541v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Clinical events captured in Electronic Health Records (EHR) are irregularly sampled and may consist of a mixture of discrete events and numerical measurements, such as laboratory values or treatment dosages.
arXiv:2608. 10969v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Healthcare data, such as Intensive Care Unit (ICU) records, comprise heterogeneous multivariate time series sampled at irregular intervals with pervasive missingness.
arXiv:2604. 16878v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Early prediction of severe clinical deterioration and remaining length of stay can enable timely intervention and better resource allocation in high-acuity settings such as the ICU.
The study benchmarks tokenization choices for generative medical event models, evaluating quantization granularity, reference-range anchoring, code–value fusion, numeric and temporal encodings, and native versus harmonized event representations. Using Llama and Qwen architectures, 156 models were trained and assessed on early hospitalization data, showing that fusing codes with value deciles and using event-order or admission-relative RoPE embeddings improved predictive performance. The Common Longitudinal Intensive Care Unit Data Format (CLIF) reduced token count by 30.8% while enhancing outcomes in most families.
arXiv:2607. 15447v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent research in clinical machine learning, focusing on outcome predictions in intensive care unit (ICU), has shifted from bespoke supervised models to foundation models, utilising modern representation learning methods.
PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy. whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."
The study introduces SynerT, a waveform-only hybrid temporal model that uses a causal dilated TCN and dilated recurrent layers to predict early intraoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). Two extensions, SynerT-MM and SynerT-Stack, incorporate hemodynamic summaries, preoperative covariates, and a leakage-safe stacked ensemble to improve discrimination and calibration. Evaluated on the VitalDB database with a strict 60‑minute prediction window, SynerT-Stack achieved the best performance across AUROC, AUPRC, and F1‑max, and demonstrated the greatest net clinical benefit after recalibration.
arXiv:2607. 14190v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and heterogeneous neurodegenerative disease in which predicting clinically meaningful milestones, such as assistive device use, remains challenging.
arXiv:2606. 12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis.
The study introduces a graph‑enhanced framework for discovering disease trajectories and forecasting temporal endpoints using longitudinal EHR data from MIMIC‑IV v3.1. It constructs patient‑specific motifs from consecutive admissions, applies a time‑aware Transformer to select up to 24 motifs per endpoint, and reports modest improvements in micro‑AUPRC and event‑time MAE, with larger gains for events occurring after 730 days. The authors also explore branching‑motif conditioning and GNN‑based edge repair, finding that motifs mainly provide long‑range timing support rather than superior endpoint discrimination or survival prediction.
arXiv:2608. 08920v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Perioperative risk prediction models are often limited by narrow surgical populations, incomplete intraoperative data, poor calibration, and limited interpretability.