Beyond Churn: Predicting Financial Fragmentation in Retail Banking with Temporal Machine Learning
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The paper presents a framework for integrating explainable AI into customer churn prediction for telecommunications. It benchmarks four classifiers—Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM—on the IBM Telco Customer Churn dataset, finding comparable performance with Logistic Regression achieving the highest AUC-ROC and LightGBM the highest accuracy. Explanations are provided via SHAP and LIME at both global and instance levels, and a four‑layer CRM integration architecture is proposed to translate risk scores and attribution vectors into actionable retention strategies, projecting a 3.3–5.3 percentage point reduction in churn and $199K–$319K savings per campaign cycle.
arXiv:2606. 07582v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Customer churn prediction is essential across data-driven industries such as insurance, digital banking, eCommerce, and subscription platforms, where retaining existing customers is typically more cost-effective than acquiring new ones.
arXiv:2606. 06776v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Customer churn prediction is a central task in customer analytics, particularly in non-contractual, pay-per-use service environments where disengagement is not explicitly observed and must be inferred from behavioral inactivity.
The paper presents a graph‑based method for detecting money‑mule accounts by treating a bank’s relational schema as a heterogeneous graph and scoring each account using multi‑hop neighbourhoods, per‑column encoders, relative‑time encoding, and HeteroGraphSAGE message passing. On a five‑year RBIH retail‑banking dataset of 400 million transactions, the model achieves 83 % precision and a 0.5 % false‑alarm rate, recovering nine out of ten held‑out mules and outperforming tree‑based baselines in recall while maintaining precision deep into the alert queue. The approach can be deployed directly on a bank’s existing database without constructing a custom feature graph.
arXiv:2606. 17931v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In recent years, electronic (E) commerce services have rapidly increased in the daily lives of people, which helpsthem to purchase products online.
Money-mule networks move criminal funds through many small transfers, each of which looks ordinary on its own. What marks an account as a mule lies outside any single transfer: in the counterparties a...