arXiv:2607. 18269v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The wisdom of crowds -- the finding that aggregating judgments across individuals often outperforms the best individual -- has been extensively studied with human forecasters.
arXiv:2609.22497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The aggregation of many lay estimates often outperforms individual expert judgment, a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds. While this is usually a...
arXiv:2602. 13792v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Artificial intelligence built on large foundation models has transformed language understanding, computer vision, and reasoning, yet these systems remain isolated and cannot readily share their capabilities.
Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding. We study how to improve this recipe through ensembling: given a fixed number of samples, which off-the-shelf model forecasts should be combined to maximize accuracy?
arXiv:2606. 29661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding.
arXiv:2606. 31404v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Human swarm intelligence demonstrates remarkable collective accuracy but faces scalability constraints in cost, coordination, and time.
The paper introduces a behavior‑aware framework to build diverse crowds of large language models (LLMs) for future prediction. By analyzing reasoning traces on independent tasks, clustering models by behavioral similarity, and selecting representative medoids, the authors demonstrate that a small, well‑chosen crowd can outperform a larger, conventional voting ensemble. Experiments with 25 LLMs across multiple benchmarks show significant reductions in model calls and inference cost while improving prediction accuracy.
arXiv:2606. 13221v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Evaluating new large language models typically requires costly human annotation campaigns at scale.
arXiv:2608. 19670v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) compression reduces deployment costs, but standard aggregate metrics like perplexity and accuracy often mask underlying behavioral shifts.
arXiv:2604. 16197v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data attribution and valuation are critical for understanding data-model synergy for Large Language Models (LLMs), yet existing gradient-based methods suffer from scalability challenges on LLMs.
The paper introduces the Universe of Universes (UoU) framework, treating the ecosystem of major large language models as a structured retrieval corpus and proposing a compositional Automated Reasoning and Machine Learning architecture for cross-model retrieval‑augmented generation. It formally defines the Benefit Yield Function (BYF), measuring marginal performance gain per added model, and identifies an implosion threshold θ* where BYF becomes zero and ensemble performance degrades. The work highlights gaps in current LLM ensemble research, such as lack of performance analysis across full model universes, and connects these findings to implications for DoD AI acquisition policy and testing of AI‑enabled systems.
Large language models (LLMs) compression reduces deployment costs, but standard aggregate metrics like perplexity and accuracy often mask underlying behavioral shifts. In this work, we systematically evaluate 3 LLMs across 11 compression methods to investigate the effects of compression on knowledge retention, model confidence, and social bias.
arXiv:2607. 25292v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Silicon sampling uses language models as proxies for human survey respondents, treating each model call as an independent draw from the persona's response distribution.