arXiv:2607. 18269v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The wisdom of crowds -- the finding that aggregating judgments across individuals often outperforms the best individual -- has been extensively studied with human forecasters.
By Igor Douven
arXiv:2607. 07729v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As foundation models grow in scale and diversity, coordinating multiple models into cooperative reasoning systems offers a path toward safer, more reliable AI.
By J. de Curt\`o, I. de Zarz\`a
arXiv:2512. 15011v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly generates the very content used to train future AI systems.
By Damian Hodel, Jevin D. West
Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding. We study how to improve this recipe through ensembling: given a fixed number of samples, which off-the-shelf model forecasts should be combined to maximize accuracy?
arXiv:2608. 17253v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful approach for improving reasoning in language and vision-language models, yet its strongest successes still depend heavily on ground-truth supervision (e.
By Yunhao Yang, Yuexin Bian, Yunjie Tian, Di Fu, Tianjin Huang, Yuanyuan Shi, Ziang Xiao, Nuno Vasconcelos, Yijiang Li
arXiv:2606. 29661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding.
By Matthew Aitchison, Scott Jeen, Toby Shevlane, Ben Day