Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding. We study how to improve this recipe through ensembling: given a fixed number of samples, which off-the-shelf model forecasts should be combined to maximize accuracy?
arXiv:2606. 29661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding.
arXiv:2608. 09948v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: No single AI weather model excels at all variables, pressure levels, and lead times.
arXiv:2607. 18269v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The wisdom of crowds -- the finding that aggregating judgments across individuals often outperforms the best individual -- has been extensively studied with human forecasters.
arXiv:2608. 08954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ensemble forecasting aims to sample the conditional distribution of outcomes; whether AI forecast ensembles do this correctly in a joint sense remains largely untested.
arXiv:2608. 10149v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Due to the diversity of real-world time series, no single forecasting model consistently dominates across all samples.
arXiv:2602. 13792v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Artificial intelligence built on large foundation models has transformed language understanding, computer vision, and reasoning, yet these systems remain isolated and cannot readily share their capabilities.
arXiv:2604. 09041v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: AI-based weather forecasting now rivals traditional physics-based ensembles, but state-of-the-art (SOTA) models rely on specialized architectures and massive computational budgets, creating a high barrier to entry.
arXiv:2608.30795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the nume...
arXiv:2310. 20545v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a multi-task optimization approach based on a deep learning architecture for time series forecasting.
arXiv:2609.38196v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate time series forecasting is critical across various domains, yet traditional ensemble methods often suffer from the disproportionate influenc...
arXiv:2606. 26421v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets.
arXiv:2607. 26940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Ensembles are a standard way to improve the performance and robustness of deep neural networks, but their effectiveness crucially depends on both the quality and the diversity of individual models.