arXiv AI
Aug 26

Diverse by Reasoning: Harnessing the Wisdom of LLM Crowds for Future Prediction

The paper introduces a behavior‑aware framework to build diverse crowds of large language models (LLMs) for future prediction. By analyzing reasoning traces on independent tasks, clustering models by behavioral similarity, and selecting representative medoids, the authors demonstrate that a small, well‑chosen crowd can outperform a larger, conventional voting ensemble. Experiments with 25 LLMs across multiple benchmarks show significant reductions in model calls and inference cost while improving prediction accuracy.

By Nirupam Chetlapalli, Yiming Liao, Min-Chun Chen, Keke Chen
arXiv AI
Sep 4

Toward Collective-Centric Evaluation of Preference Inference for Participatory Democracy

The paper examines how Preference Inference (PI) models used in large-scale participatory democracy platforms can alter the perceived consensus and minority support by predicting missing votes. It introduces a collective‑centric evaluation framework that assesses whether inferred votes maintain key properties of the overall preference landscape, rather than focusing solely on individual prediction accuracy. Using the largest multilingual dataset to date—four consultations with over 90,000 participants, 1 million votes, and 22 languages—the study finds that models with similar predictive accuracy can differ markedly in how well they preserve the collective structure, underscoring that accuracy alone is insufficient for evaluating PI in democratic contexts.

By Pierre-Antoine Lequeu, Salim Hafid, Paul Lerner, Nazanin Shafiabadi, Laur\`ene Cave, David Mas, Jean-Philippe Cointet, Benjamin Piwowarski, Fran\c{c}ois Yvon
arXiv AI
Jun 2

Demystifying Multi-Agent Debate: The Role of Confidence and Diversity

arXiv:2601. 19921v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multi-agent debate (MAD) is widely used to improve large language model (LLM) performance through test-time scaling, yet recent work shows that vanilla MAD often underperforms simple majority vote despite higher computational cost.

By Xiaochen Zhu, Caiqi Zhang, Yizhou Chi, Tom Stafford, Nigel Collier, Andreas Vlachos