arXiv:2609.22497v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The aggregation of many lay estimates often outperforms individual expert judgment, a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds. While this is usually a...
By Federico Barrera-Lemarchand, Mariano Sigman, Joaquin Navajas
arXiv:2504. 03991v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding how humans collaborate and communicate in teams is essential for improving human-agent teaming and AI-assisted decision-making.
By Siddharth Srikanth, Varun Bhatt, Boshen Zhang, Werner Hager, Charles Michael Lewis, Katia P. Sycara, Aaquib Tabrez, Stefanos Nikolaidis
arXiv:2607. 18269v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The wisdom of crowds -- the finding that aggregating judgments across individuals often outperforms the best individual -- has been extensively studied with human forecasters.
By Igor Douven
The paper introduces Population Fidelity, an evaluation framework for assessing how well large language models (LLMs) represent human population attitudes. It focuses on three dimensions: group-level accuracy, between-group variation, and the structure of that variation. Using the framework, the authors replicate a prior study on machine bias and test cultural fine-tuning, finding that while fine-tuning improves overall alignment, it does not enhance representation of within-population differences.
By Neemias B. da Silva, Martin Lukk, Ali Sutani, Abhishek Moturu, Harris Yang, Daniel Silver, Matt Ratto, Thiago H. Silva
arXiv:2607. 20429v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models are increasingly used to simulate diverse human opinions in open-ended tasks such as synthetic surveys, focus group modeling, and public opinion prediction.
By Qiyang Yao
arXiv:2606. 29661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding.
By Matthew Aitchison, Scott Jeen, Toby Shevlane, Ben Day