The study evaluates whether inflammatory biomarkers can predict cognitive impairment in older Hispanic adults using interpretable machine learning on a small clinical dataset. A leakage‑safe Bernoulli/Categorical Naive Bayes model was trained on 165 participants from the Panama Aging Research Initiative, with continuous predictors discretized via supervised chi‑square and income treated categorically. The biomarker I‑309 (CCL1) emerged as the sole reliable incremental predictor, boosting ROC‑AUC from 0.630 to 0.740 and achieving statistically significant performance across repeated cross‑validation and random partitions.
arXiv:2606. 03995v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Background: Alzheimer's disease (AD) affects over 55 million people worldwide.
The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.
arXiv:2607. 28687v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As populations age, cognitive decline from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia is a defining health challenge of the coming decades, yet routine assessment often misses its earliest signs.
The paper introduces a statistically grounded framework for interpretable, rule-based clinical classification using Bernoulli Naïve Bayes (BNB). It employs supervised chi‑square‑guided binarization to convert continuous medical variables into binary indicators, enabling BNB to handle continuous data while maintaining transparency. On three benchmark datasets—Pima Indians Diabetes, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Heart Failure Prediction—the method achieved AUCs of 0.800, 0.984, and 0.919, respectively, and demonstrated reliable probability calibration through cross‑validated analysis and post‑hoc beta calibration.
The study audited ten different classifiers—including linear, tree‑ensemble, neural, glass‑box, and tabular foundation models—on national health survey data to predict myocardial infarction. By systematically removing features that could cause target leakage, the authors found that all models’ AUROC scores collapsed into a narrow band, indicating that reported high accuracy in prior work was largely due to leakage rather than model sophistication. The glass‑box explainable boosting machine performed comparably to other models while being much faster, and the authors demonstrated that fairness, calibration, and uncertainty can be audited and repaired without sacrificing performance.
arXiv:2607. 11656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate diagnostic classification and disease-severity prediction for Alzheimer's disease are hampered by the incompleteness and heterogeneity of real-world clinical data.
arXiv:2506.15626v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: $\textbf{Objective:}$ Brain-predicted age difference (BrainAGE) is a neuroimaging biomarker reflecting brain health. However, training robust...
arXiv:2606. 12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis.
arXiv:2505. 16941v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Foundation models (FMs) promise to address core limitations of traditional supervised machine learning: (i) reliance on large amounts of labeled data, (ii) task specificity, and (iii) poor transportability.
arXiv:2607. 15394v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Black-box models limit the adoption of artificial intelligence in medicine due to their lack of interpretability and reproducibility.
The paper introduces Explainable Graph-theoretical Machine Learning (XGML) to build individual metabolic brain graphs from FDG-PET data and identify subgraphs predictive of multivariate Alzheimer’s disease outcomes. Using ADNI data, the best model—kernel density estimation with Hellinger distance and random forest—achieved a Pearson correlation of 0.595 across eight cognitive scores, with the highest performance on ADAS13, ADAS11, and ADASQ4. Key edges were found to be jointly but differentially predictive, indicating potential network biomarkers for cognitive decline, though external validation on OASIS3 showed weaker performance likely due to cohort differences.
arXiv:2609.07729v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Normative age models are trained to predict chronological age in a nominally healthy cohort. Applied to patients, they deviate, and the gap between pre...