The paper introduces a local audit method that identifies where a prediction model is miscalibrated and for whom, by grouping similar observations into ‘pockets’ using random‑forest similarity and ridge‑regression. The audit, which requires only features, outcomes, and fixed predictions, demonstrates superior detection of group‑specific errors in simulations and real synthetic data, revealing nuanced over‑ and under‑prediction patterns that overall metrics like AUC can miss.
The study evaluates whether inflammatory biomarkers can predict cognitive impairment in older Hispanic adults using interpretable machine learning on a small clinical dataset. A leakage‑safe Bernoulli/Categorical Naive Bayes model was trained on 165 participants from the Panama Aging Research Initiative, with continuous predictors discretized via supervised chi‑square and income treated categorically. The biomarker I‑309 (CCL1) emerged as the sole reliable incremental predictor, boosting ROC‑AUC from 0.630 to 0.740 and achieving statistically significant performance across repeated cross‑validation and random partitions.
By Antony Garcia, Gabrielle Britton, Alcibiades Villarreal, Diana Oviedo, Giselle Rangel, Xinming Huang
arXiv:2611.07950v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Benchmarks of class-imbalance strategies for multimodal chest X-ray (CXR) and electronic health record (EHR) prediction are often evaluated on record-l...
By Dang-Khoa Bui, Quang-Huy Tran, Minh-Khoi Nguyen-Bui, Duc-Tuan Ngo, Thanh-Trong Tran, Tuan-Khoi Nguyen, Hoang-Anh Ngo
arXiv:2606. 11267v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data leakage -- contamination of a model with information unavailable at baseline -- is the dominant reproducibility failure in machine-learning-based science, yet detection tools require training code, external data, or domain expertise.
By Laurence A. Jacobs
arXiv:2509. 10517v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning can predict in-hospital mortality, but data privacy and the statistical heterogeneity of clinical data hamper its use.
By Rodrigo Tertulino
The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.
By Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Nusrat Jahan, Snehasis Mukhopadhyay, Shiaofen Fang, Vijay R. Ramakrishnan