When uncertainty quantification fails: structural vulnerabilities and corrections for selective prediction under clinical class imbalance
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arXiv:2607. 27143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-stakes decision systems in credit scoring, fraud detection, healthcare, and industrial safety require reliable uncertainty quantification under severe class imbalance and asymmetric error costs.
The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.
The paper introduces the Fragility Index (FI), a new performance metric that measures the tail risk of confident misclassifications in classification models. FI is framed within a robust satisficing framework to assess classifier sensitivity under distributional uncertainty, and the authors develop a surrogate-based training method with provable bounds linking training fragility to ranking-error FI. The approach is extended to common loss functions and includes an FI-based regularizer for deep neural networks, with empirical studies on medical diagnosis tasks showing that FI reveals risk not captured by accuracy or AUC and leads to models with lower operational costs in a human–AI diagnostic workflow.
arXiv:2608. 12477v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical prediction models are often developed as if the outcome of interest were cleanly observed for every patient.
arXiv:2607. 11656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate diagnostic classification and disease-severity prediction for Alzheimer's disease are hampered by the incompleteness and heterogeneity of real-world clinical data.
The paper introduces AdaConRed, a label‑free post‑conformal decision rule that transforms ambiguous conformal prediction sets into single class assignments for medical image classification. It employs a five‑stage pipeline—vision‑language generative augmentation, a frozen DermFoundation encoder, a lightweight MLP classifier, an entropy‑modulated margin‑aware nonconformity score, and a reassignment step for transitional samples—to improve accuracy on OSCC and ISIC benchmarks. Results show notable gains in malignant class accuracy while maintaining overall performance.