The study investigates how confidence intervals (CIs) behave in medical imaging AI by analyzing 24 segmentation and classification tasks with 19 models per task, various metrics, aggregation strategies, and CI methods. It finds that required sample sizes for reliable CIs vary widely, CI behavior depends on performance metrics, aggregation strategy, and problem type, and that different CI methods differ in reliability and precision. The authors provide a decision tree to guide researchers in selecting appropriate CI methods, aiming to support future consensus guidelines on reporting performance uncertainty.
arXiv:2609.39429v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key requirement for trustworthy AI in high-stakes medical image analysis. In this work, we evaluate UQ in a mult...
The paper introduces a decision‑aware evaluation protocol for medical image segmentation uncertainty that separates uncertainty estimation from deferral policy and assesses their joint performance under fixed review budgets. It reports metrics such as fixed‑budget error reduction, risk‑coverage behavior, region‑level review proxies, structural failure modes, and sensitivity to review assumptions. Experiments on retinal vessel, skin lesion, and polyp segmentation with various backbones and uncertainty estimators show that estimator rankings vary with review unit, uncertainty target, and cost model, and that boundary and thin‑structure failures are partly due to annotation ambiguity.
Reference labels used to train medical image classification models are not always as certain as they may appear, and this uncertainty has implications on performance metrics. In this study, we propose...
The study evaluates the reliability of deep‑ensemble uncertainty for brain tumour segmentation on the BraTS‑GoAT dataset. A 5‑fold cross‑validated nnU‑Net baseline and a 3‑seed deep ensemble were compared for calibration and error detection; the ensemble showed modest gains in calibration on in‑distribution data but the single model’s confidence remained flat while accuracy degraded under synthetic corruptions. Disagreement among ensemble members rose sharply with corruption severity, proving to be a more sensitive indicator of acquisition shift than single‑model confidence.
arXiv:2606. 15910v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors.
The paper presents a method for estimating segmentation confidence in convolutional neural networks without requiring custom architectures or retraining. It introduces voxel‑based uncertainty estimation that can be integrated into existing pipelines and proposes a novel technique to derive a single confidence score from uncertainty maps. Experiments across various regions of interest and imaging modalities demonstrate that the proposed score predicts segmentation performance on unseen data.
The paper introduces an uncertainty‑mapping framework for periventricular Fazekas score prediction, moving beyond standard performance metrics. By linking uncertainty to positions in the learned feature space, it identifies class‑boundary regions where predictions are ambiguous and highlights potential label disagreements. The study shows that different loss functions affect the uncertainty profile, with some models achieving clearer class separation and more localized uncertainty.
Background Non-invasive presurgical diagnosis of brain tumor types from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is essential but challenging due to overlapping imaging features across tumor types, inter-obse...
arXiv:2609.16597v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Background Non-invasive presurgical diagnosis of brain tumor types from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is essential but challenging due to overlapp...
arXiv:2609.15180v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision-language models are increasingly explored for clinical prediction from electronic health records and medical images, where identifying unreliabl...
arXiv:2606. 19300v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Glioma segmentation in multiparametric MRI is a critical component of treatment planning.
arXiv:2607. 26333v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Chest X-ray (CXR) machine learning relies heavily on automated evaluation using reference standards that aim to approximate clinical judgment.