arXiv Machine Learning

Performance uncertainty in medical image analysis: a large-scale investigation of confidence intervals

The study investigates how confidence intervals (CIs) behave in medical imaging AI by analyzing 24 segmentation and classification tasks with 19 models per task, various metrics, aggregation strategies, and CI methods. It finds that required sample sizes for reliable CIs vary widely, CI behavior depends on performance metrics, aggregation strategy, and problem type, and that different CI methods differ in reliability and precision. The authors provide a decision tree to guide researchers in selecting appropriate CI methods, aiming to support future consensus guidelines on reporting performance uncertainty.

arXiv Computer Vision
Aug 27

Reliability analysis for BraTS-GoAT segmentation: a controlled robustness study of deep-ensemble uncertainty

The study evaluates the reliability of deep‑ensemble uncertainty for brain tumour segmentation on the BraTS‑GoAT dataset. A 5‑fold cross‑validated nnU‑Net baseline and a 3‑seed deep ensemble were compared for calibration and error detection; the ensemble showed modest gains in calibration on in‑distribution data but the single model’s confidence remained flat while accuracy degraded under synthetic corruptions. Disagreement among ensemble members rose sharply with corruption severity, proving to be a more sensitive indicator of acquisition shift than single‑model confidence.

By Riya Deepak Shet, Chenxi Liang, Le Zhang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Rethinking Clinical Relevance in Chest X-ray Machine Learning: How Evaluation References Define Performance

arXiv:2607. 26333v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Chest X-ray (CXR) machine learning relies heavily on automated evaluation using reference standards that aim to approximate clinical judgment.

By Panagiotis Fytas, Ian Selby, Clemens Karner, Judith Babar, Simon Baker, Jake Beckford, Timothy J. Sadler, Shahab Shahipasand, Arthikkaa Thavakumar, John Li Chen, Alex Sawer, Michael Roberts, Jonathan Weir-McCall, J. H. F. Rudd, Carola-Bibiane Sch\"onlieb, Anna Korhonen, Anna Breger
arXiv Machine Learning
3d ago

Uncertainty of Vision Medical Foundation Models

The paper investigates how pre‑training strategy, dataset size, and domain affect uncertainty estimation in vision medical foundation models. It compares point‑prediction calibration with conformal (region) prediction across retinal, histopathological, and chest X‑ray models, finding that domain‑specific, self‑supervised pre‑training yields better calibration and more efficient conformal sets. The study shows that standard recalibration alone cannot fully reconcile uncertainty differences between models trained on different data sources.

By Haoxu Huang, Narges Razavian
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 18

Beyond Boundary Noise: Aggregated Aleatoric Uncertainty Fails to Capture Presence Ambiguity in 3D Lung Nodule Segmentation

arXiv:2608. 14766v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty estimation is critical for the safe clinical deployment of deep learning in medical image segmentation, with aleatoric uncertainty theoretically designed to capture irreducible data ambiguity.

By Simon Baur, Arne Schernich, Ekin B\"oke, Wojciech Samek, Jackie Ma
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 28

Trustworthy Medical Segmentation: Uncertainty-Aware U-Net Evaluation Under Clinical Image Degradation

arXiv:2607. 22727v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Medical image segmentation models often report high benchmark accuracy under ideal imaging conditions, yet their failures under clinical degradation can be quiet: sensor noise, patient motion, low- resolution acquisition, and contrast variability may all alter model behavior without producing an obvious warning.

By Pranav Kaliaperumal, Manisha Kaliaperumal
arXiv AI
Jul 20

Perception-Aligned AI Outputs: End-to-End Visual Prediction for Uncertainty Communication in Clinical Decision-Making

arXiv:2205. 04599v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is essential for trustworthy AI in healthcare, yet many existing methods rely on technical explanations that are difficult for clinicians and patients to interpret.

By Mohammad Eslami, Solale Tabarestani, Saber Kazeminasab, Ehsan Adeli, Glyn Elwyn, Tobias Elze, Mengyu Wang, Nazlee Zebardast, Lucia Sobrin, Nassir Navab, Daniel Shu Wei Ting, Malek Adjouadi