The study investigates how confidence intervals (CIs) behave in medical imaging AI by analyzing 24 segmentation and classification tasks with 19 models per task, various metrics, aggregation strategies, and CI methods. It finds that required sample sizes for reliable CIs vary widely, CI behavior depends on performance metrics, aggregation strategy, and problem type, and that different CI methods differ in reliability and precision. The authors provide a decision tree to guide researchers in selecting appropriate CI methods, aiming to support future consensus guidelines on reporting performance uncertainty.
By Pascaline Andr\'e (Sorbonne Universit\'e, Institut du Cerveau - Paris Brain Institute - ICM, CNRS, Inria, Inserm, AP-HP, H\^opital de la Piti\'e-Salp\^etri\`ere, Paris, France), Charles Heitz (Sorbonne Universit\'e, Institut du Cerveau - Paris Brain Institute - ICM, CNRS, Inria, Inserm, AP-HP, H\^opital de la Piti\'e-Salp\^etri\`ere, Paris, France), Evangelia Christodoulou (German Cancer Research Center), Annika Reinke (German Cancer Research Center), Carole H. Sudre (Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing at UCL, Department of Population Science and Experimental Medicine and Hawkes InstituteCentre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, UK), Michela Antonelli (School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Science, King's College London, UK), Patrick Godau (German Cancer Research Center), M. Jorge Cardoso (School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Science, King's College London, UK), Antoine Gilson (Sorbonne Universit\'e, Institut du Cerveau - Paris Brain Institute - ICM, CNRS, Inria, Inserm, AP-HP, H\^opital de la Piti\'e-Salp\^etri\`ere, Paris, France), Sophie Tezenas du Montcel (Sorbonne Universit\'e, Institut du Cerveau - Paris Brain Institute - ICM, CNRS, Inria, Inserm, AP-HP, H\^opital de la Piti\'e-Salp\^etri\`ere, Paris, France), Ga\"el Varoquaux (SODA project team, Inria Saclay-\^Ile-de-France, France), Lena Maier-Hein (German Cancer Research Center), Olivier Colliot (Sorbonne Universit\'e, Institut du Cerveau - Paris Brain Institute - ICM, CNRS, Inria, Inserm, AP-HP, H\^opital de la Piti\'e-Salp\^etri\`ere, Paris, France)