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The paper introduces an uncertainty‑mapping framework for periventricular Fazekas score prediction, moving beyond standard performance metrics. By linking uncertainty to positions in the learned feature space, it identifies class‑boundary regions where predictions are ambiguous and highlights potential label disagreements. The study shows that different loss functions affect the uncertainty profile, with some models achieving clearer class separation and more localized uncertainty.
The study investigates how confidence intervals (CIs) behave in medical imaging AI by analyzing 24 segmentation and classification tasks with 19 models per task, various metrics, aggregation strategies, and CI methods. It finds that required sample sizes for reliable CIs vary widely, CI behavior depends on performance metrics, aggregation strategy, and problem type, and that different CI methods differ in reliability and precision. The authors provide a decision tree to guide researchers in selecting appropriate CI methods, aiming to support future consensus guidelines on reporting performance uncertainty.
arXiv:2607. 26333v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Chest X-ray (CXR) machine learning relies heavily on automated evaluation using reference standards that aim to approximate clinical judgment.
arXiv:2609.15180v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision-language models are increasingly explored for clinical prediction from electronic health records and medical images, where identifying unreliabl...
The paper investigates how pre‑training strategy, dataset size, and domain affect uncertainty estimation in vision medical foundation models. It compares point‑prediction calibration with conformal (region) prediction across retinal, histopathological, and chest X‑ray models, finding that domain‑specific, self‑supervised pre‑training yields better calibration and more efficient conformal sets. The study shows that standard recalibration alone cannot fully reconcile uncertainty differences between models trained on different data sources.
The paper examines whether model uncertainty aligns with human disagreement on vision tasks. Using multi‑annotator datasets (FER+ and CIFAR‑10H), the authors find that pretrained models rarely reflect the ambiguity humans perceive, with weak correlations between model confidence and human disagreement. Predictive multiplicity offers only modest improvement, indicating that common uncertainty metrics fail to flag ambiguous cases.